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To: MNI who wrote (14814)	10/6/1999 10:03:00 AM
From: MNI	Respond to of 17770

Berlin state election projections: the most likely result for the imminent (Sunday) election of the Berlin state parliament is 'nothing new in Berlin'. The latest polls are already 10 days old, but didn't show much movement in the previous six weeks. One poll predicts: 38% CDU 20% SPD 16% PDS 11% Greens (www.politik-digital.de) liberals below 5% threshold right radicals not projected This outcome would surely lead to a revival of the current CDU-SPD coalition with reinforced CDU leadership and mayor E. Diepgen, and awkard losses of the SPD are already included. Schroeder has already foresaken Berlin state elections by announcing even directly after the Saxonia elections that he expected a renewed shape of the SPD after the party conventions in mid-December (the so-called Father Christmas effect). What are possible sensations? 1. A Haider effect would push down CDU. It would be actually a Stoiber effect; Stoibers addressing of Haider may have deleted the credibility of CDUs liberality. Even Stoiber of CSU (Bavarian) may have had that in mind: to embarass some Prussians would make him even more popular in Bavaria. 2. A Lafontaine/Vogel effect could push down SPD: Jochen Vogel (SPD mainstream) (younger brother of Bernhard Vogel, CDU, the Minister Pres. of Thuringia) joined in Lafontaine's harsh criticism of "Schroeder's duplicity" yesterday. 3. a combined effect that would lead to less than an absolute majority of CDU+SPD in the parliament is unlikely, as it would require several small parties to proceed to parliament. As a strange side effect in that case SPD < Greens would most probably hold, and a CDU+Greens, or a black+red+green government were among the options considered. A different, and maybe more logical scheme would be red+red+green. Everything discussed here seems unlikely however. The impending CDU+SPD coalition would mirror the SPD+CDU coalition of surrounding Brandenburg which would probably enhance the projected fusion of both states. Regards MNI.