Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Let's Talk About Our Feelings!!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: epicure who wrote (57355)	10/6/1999 9:53:00 AM
From: Edwarda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108807

Very fancy input/output models full of correlation coefficients. Some work well; some don't.

To: epicure who wrote (57355)	10/6/1999 7:02:00 PM
From: nihil	Respond to of 108807

The basic model is celestial mechanics looking for causes of perturbations. Economic theory suggests the first round curves, and statistical analysis helps refit the first approximation to something better fitting. The improvements over naive models (trends) is remarkable. Trends never find a turning point, and predicting turning points is the name of the game. Determinng the value of the model is easy -- how does it perform compared to nothing, or naive models, or experts? I've just been testifying in a number of wrongful death suits in which the law specifies the contents of the model, but the expert can use his own as long as it satisfies the list. Because of recent changes in the data of consumption, I was able to prove that the value of the loss to the estates of two young men was $25,000 each. The loss to the dead young woman was $-11,000. I used federal data to show that scarcely anyone saves anything, so after subtracting expected consumption and taxes there's almost nothing left (it's different if the deceased had dependents). A few more victories in court, and I expect wrongful death suits to go away. I have a wrongful death of a Franciscan monk who lived wholy by begging. I doubt if his estate will receive a penny, and his lawyer will have to eat the costs. The importance of economic analysis in the courts requires that experts carefully explain and justify their models. An opponent's expert's testimony was excluded because he missed a point of Hawaii law in his report. It looks as this will be another case where the defendant's expert will be the only one to testify.