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Non-Tech : The Y2K Newspaper -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Ounce who wrote (121)	10/11/1999 10:21:00 AM
From: Bill Ounce	Respond to of 198

news.com: Y2K Official predicts fallout for months news.cnet.com By Reuters Special to CNET News.com October 9, 1999, 8:10 p.m. PT WASHINGTON--The man at the heart of efforts to manage the world's Year 2000 problem predicts that phones and lights will work just about everywhere as the new century dawns but that fallout will eat away at economies for months. "Y2K-caused effects on daily life will be complex and more chronic than acute," said Bruce McConnell, director of the International Y2K Cooperation Center, a World Bank-funded, U.N.-backed clearinghouse. In an interview with Reuters and in testimony to be presented to a Senate panel next week, McConnell described an emerging picture of failures that may bounce slowly from one sector to another. "The Y2K problem is not going to look very interesting when it happens," he said by telephone this week. But a lot of relatively minor problems, like credit card rejections tied to mistakenly machine-read expiration dates, "could really gum up the works over a period of time." [...] "Performance degradation, potentially exacerbated by non-Y2K factors, may cascade from one infrastructure to another," McConnell added. He declined to speculate on the scope, scale, or length of Y2K disruptions worldwide. [...] Now, McConnell says that if he had to use an earthquake analogy, he would narrow the magnitude range to 2 to 5. But he says that's not a good analogy because Y2K, unlike a quake, will not just hit and be over with. [...] The most significant Y2K risk is not localized technology failures, he said, but a decline in the meshing of "electronic devices, procedures, people, and organizations that together make modern life workable and efficient." [...] Story Copyright © 1999 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

To: Bill Ounce who wrote (121)	10/11/1999 10:36:00 AM
From: Bill Ounce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 198

USA Today - Y2K fears start to surface Pretty good article for USA Today. Bold stuff is emphasized by me. usatoday.com Y2K fears start to surface By M. J. Zuckerman, USA TODAY Corporate America is exhibiting nervous ticks and twitches as the Year 2000 nears. For almost two years, companies made mostly rosy predictions about their ability to handle the Y2K computer glitch. But now, some of the nation's largest corporations are expressing reservations in quarterly Y2K status reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. [...] While no one predicts devastating system failures, several companies draw apocalyptic pictures. The SEC requires firms to provide worst-case scenarios. Such disclosures are meant to warn investors and provide some defense against liability lawsuits if the worst comes to pass. "These filings are neither basis for panic nor reason to be reassured," says Steve Hock, of Triaxsys Research, a consulting firm that analyzed SEC filings. Common themes Hock identifies five trends in the latest SEC disclosures, which reflect work completed through June 30: Domino effect. Companies are recognizing that there are likely to be failures resulting from the complex relationships of systems. Mobil Oil, for instance, says the failure of one or more systems that individually are minor could "trigger a cascade of other failures for Year 2000 reasons, the combination of which could have a material adverse effect on Mobil's operations, liquidity and/or financial condition." Embedded systems. These are microchips contained in millions, perhaps billions, of products that may have some time-sensitive qualities. If they fail, they could trigger the domino effect. Enron, one of the world's largest suppliers of energy, admits that it, its suppliers and other firms on which it depends won't be able to find and fix all its embedded chips. The company warns: "Some of the embedded chips that fail to operate or that produce anomalous results may create system disruptions or failures. Some of these disruptions or failures may spread from the systems in which they are located to other systems in a cascade. These cascading failures may have adverse effects upon Enron's ability to maintain safe operations and may also have adverse effects upon Enron's ability to serve its customers." Supply chain problems. The failure of a smaller provider to fix its Y2K problems could cripple a larger company. Philip Morris reports that it considers 700 of its 6,000 "key business partners" likely to suffer some Y2K failures. Upshot: "The possible consequences of these disruptions include temporary plant closings, delays in the delivery of products, delays in the receipt of supplies, invoice and collection errors, and inventory and supply obsolescence. Depending on the number and severity of disruptions, it is possible that the business and its operating subsidiaries could be materially adversely affected." Stockpiling. Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly, for example, "has made the decision to increase inventories of certain key products in order to have additional finished stock in the event excessive consumer purchasing occurs in late 1999." Such stockpiling by companies could skew economic statistics and create the illusion of rapid economic growth. Replacing old systems. Hock says about 25% of companies are installing new systems rather than upgrading old ones. Those firms are "at terrible risk," he says. "Historically, 80% of technology projects that ultimately fail to make deadline are reported to be on time and trouble free just three months prior to" deadline. [...]