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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (68715)	10/6/1999 6:39:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

BGR, >>In summary, the future is unpredictable, thus making accurate valuation impossible.<< I believe you are incorrectly assuming that one has to know the future exactly in order for the valuation to be useful. A valuation is generally the result of a variety of assumptions and models. The stock price must be out of line by enough so that the even if you are wrong about the future to some degree things will work out OK. Margin of safety is the cornerstone. It's also important to understand that you are not required to value every company or every sector. You can specialize. Some companies and industries are much easier to understand and make estimates about than others. Most value guys make a list of the best and easiest to understand companies they can find. Then they follow them closely. I can assure you that if you study the history of Tootsie Roll and Wrigleys closely and then follow the developments you will form valid opinions about their value in short order. Wayne