To: Bob Fairchild who wrote (1764 ) 10/6/1999 6:39:00 PM From: George J. Tromp Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2522
Here is what was reported by me on the date, check the price since To: Kevin F. Durkin who wrote (217) From: George J. Tromp Tuesday, Jan 6 1998 9:21AM ET Reply # of 2183 THIS SURVEY VALIDATES SOME OF MY POINTS Ref Mining Week article. DIAMOND MINE ECONOMICS; A survey of economic data compiled for 21 hard rock diamond mines (pipes and dykes) and 17 potentially viable hard-rock prospects concludes that diamonds are no different to other commodities: good mines will continue to make profits., marginal producers will disappear and economically robust mines will take their places. The survey has been carried out by Roger Hamilton., managing director of Perth based Southstar Resources NL., and is based on data collected over the past 18 years by WMC ltd. Mr Hamilton was formerly manager of diamond exploration for that company. The economic analysis of the data was carried out in 1996 by South African diamond consultant John Bristow. The survey examines the relationship between product price and operating cost to see how these might be affected by future demand and possible LOWER diamond prices. OPERATING COSTS ARE IN THE FOLLOWING RANGES; 1. US $18-30/t for large pits (>3 ha pipeand >5Mt/y milled) 2. US $25-32t for small to medium size pits (1-3 ha pipe and <5 Mt/y milled 3. US $17-20 for block caving operations( 3-5 Mt/ milled) and US $25-3Ot for stoping operations(1 Mt./y milled.) Some operations were excluded from these categories. They include a number of diamond mines in Siberia (where costs tend to be higher) the mines under development in Canada where the small size of the pipes and their remoteness could make underground costs very high; the large Archangel open pit in Russia., where costs could be above the big pit range., and several small African operations where pit and stoping costs can be very low., example Rex Mining 3 Fissure deposits. The survey finds that about 70% of the 38 properties pass the >20% rate of return hurdle., and that some of the mines are "obscenely profitable. Profiitability is not necessarily dependent on size. The Internationalynaya pipe in Russia for example is less than 1 ha in areal extent and has a MAXIMUM HORIZONTAL dimension of 70m. Following the cessation of open-pit operations., it is being developed as an underground operation to a depth of 1000m. The ore is estimated to be worth $400/ton and had this pipe been discovered by a junior company with 30 million shares the value of each share would be more than US$30- and this takes into account the value of the FIRST 300meters depth. Plotting a profit distribution curve at current costs and diamond prices for the 38 properties studied., the survey demonstrates that they include 3 really great mines- Jwaneng (56 ha)., Udachnaya (20 ha) and Venetia (18 ha). If the excercise is repeated to show the EFFECT OF A 50% fall in diamond prices 4 of the remaining 38 mines remain very profitable. The best 2 being Jwaenang and Venetia both controlled by DeBeers and 10 still make acceptable profits CURRENT PRODUCERS that would fail to make profits include Orapa (-28%) Udachnaya (-46%) Argyle (-48%) Mr. Hamilton has also examined the potential for new production to result in an oversupply over a ten year period from 1996. The model assumes a 2% annual demand increase from a base level 96 oversupply of 10Mct., the impact on the market of five major new mines., and two price scenarios., one assuming static prices and the other a 5% annual price decrease. At a fixed diamond price (In 1996 dollars)., supply and demand remain in balance. In the decreasing price scenario., significant production shortfalls quickly develope. DeBeers major competitors., Argyle and Udachanaya are predicted to be quite resilient to diamond price falls and Mr. Hamilton suggests that if DeBeers were to flood the market with small and poor to medium quality goods for a substantial period., some of its own mines including Orapa would close. He believes some price weakening must occurr if the supply/demand balance is to open to allow new production., and he says that it is the cheap and small gem side of the market that would likely suffer. In effect this process is already under way. NO diamond gulut is predicted and any good new discovery., large and small will find a place in the producer spectrum. In regards to Ashton Mining Mr. Crebs I have trouble getting enthused over what appears at this point to be marginal economics., in light of the fluid gem market my exploration dollars will be looking for small deposits with some of the above criteria. I am somewhat concerned that Ashtons standard of acceptable deposits vary to some degree from my personal preferences. I viewed the cross lake drilling over a number of years., and thought it quite odd they would persist in what early on at least my part to be marginal econcomics at best. Just my opinion Terry but well founded on past. The predominant factor in spite of Cross Lake is the zonal variance in Alberta., it sort of indicates less than spectacular counts., and if seeing they took months to determine the parent rock., tells me the diamond values will be marginal on what they already delineated to this point. So getting to the point concerning Ashton., I am not impressed enough to open my wallet. But then again., time will tell. Good Day to all.