To: Spytrdr who wrote (8784 ) 10/7/1999 6:13:00 AM From: LABMAN Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13953
Online brokerages prefigure the Net's future By R. Scott Raynovich Redherring.com October 7, 1999 NEW YORK -- Cutthroat competition in the online brokerage market, where rivals spend billions of dollars on TV advertising, shows that attracting customers and grabbing market share are crucial elements in the early development of Internet business models. And someday, at least, online brokerages are expected to make money. "The online brokerages are fighting the hardest, and therefore they're doing the most," says Bill Burnham, who recently became a venture capital partner with Softbank Technology Ventures. Mr. Burnham spent many years as an equity analyst before specializing in Internet and online brokerages. Mr. Burnham, various investment bank analysts, and other financial services experts debated the future of the online brokerage industry at an Internet financial services conference held this week at Internet World in New York. For Jim Marks, a director of research with Credit Suisse First Boston, the success of an online brokerage business boils down to one question: will revenue be significantly larger than the marketing dollars required to attract new customers? "It costs them $150 to $300 to acquire a customer," says Mr. Marks. "If that account does $400 in revenue during the first year, they make money. The difference is, they are reinvesting that money in the business now, so they're not showing the profit." What if the amount of revenue the online brokerages receive from each customer declines? Panel experts debated future online brokerage commissions and whether they'll ever be free. Most online brokerages charge fees ranging from $7 to $30 per trade. HOW LOW CAN YOU GO? "It seems to me that people like ETrade [Nasdaq: EGRP] will be offering commissions that get closer to zero," said Henry Blodget, a vice president and Internet analyst with Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER). "The question is how to move out of the day-trading phenomenon and get to really profitable customers. These companies have great technology, and they've shown they can aggregate a really large customer base at a loss. But how do you work out of this really unprofitable group?" Mr. Marks, who currently recommends "holds" on most Internet brokerage stocks because "the market had moved further beyond," said they can't afford to reduce commissions much further because transactions costs already have dropped as low as $7 a trade. "It won't go to zero," says Mr. Marks. "You allude to negative earnings, but the underlying businesses are extremely profitable." Others believed that while brokerages may not be able to support free trades, free Internet access may become an increasingly popular feature of brokerage services. Mr. Burnham repeated his mantra that paying for Internet access is "archaic," maintaining that more online brokers will offer free Internet access. WHO DO YOU LOVE? Among brokerages mentioned in the panel were ETrade, Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCH), and Merrill Lynch. While Mr. Blodget's own firm, Merrill Lynch, was often ridiculed for its late response to online trading, some believed that its multiple pricing models -- in which customers pay either a per-trade fee or a flat rate for unlimited trading throughout the year -- was a potential future trend. "You've got to have different levels of pricing," said Rob Sterling, an analyst with Jupiter Communications. ETrade was mentioned often as the group leader, while Ameritrade was dubbed by Mr. Marks as "most efficient" in terms of lowering transaction costs. Despite disagreements over price points and business models, all of the analysts seemed to concur that financial services is a market well-suited for the Web, given its heavy reliance on data and transactions. "There is no better product suited for Internet distribution," said Mr. Marks. "It's all data changing hands, no physical products, and for 98 percent of financial services products, it means getting something at the lowest cost. What better tool is there for getting something like that at the lowest cost than a computer network?"