Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FIRENZA who wrote (15984)	10/6/1999 11:45:00 PM
From: Solid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Excellent insights.

To: FIRENZA who wrote (15984)	10/6/1999 11:54:00 PM
From: Ahda	Respond to of 29970

One heck of a post Paul Allen has the biggest advantage of all cash flow.

To: FIRENZA who wrote (15984)	10/7/1999 12:04:00 AM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Gee whiz, FIRENZA, and I thought it was all about giving the consumer a better, faster Internet experience! <VBG> Great post, when is the book coming out? hehehehe

To: FIRENZA who wrote (15984)	10/7/1999 1:47:00 AM
From: tom offenbach	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

Firenza, your analysis of a potential T/ATHM/AOL partnership is interesting. I have a few comments on some issues you brought up. For the record, ATT wasn't the first to offer a $19.95 unlimited access offering, NETCOM was.....not that it matters but I worked there at the time and remember the day the decision was made to do so. Armstrong, IMHO, would like to see Steve Case in the poor house. Remember when AOL turned down T's offer to purchase them? This occurred shortly after Armstrong assumed the CEO post at T. Looking back, I'm glad Case denied T then because AOL stock is significantly higher than it was at the time...yes I am an AOL stockholder too. Who knows what the landscape would be today had that event occured, I could be wrong in my assessment in supporting Case for nixing the T buyout....it's water under the bridge now. Not for Armstrong though. Case's denial of purchase pissed Armstrong off so much that he decided to bury AOL by supporting ATHM with his purchase of TCI. Yes, there are other benefits for T in such a transaction (owning the loop by not relying upon RBOC's as the supplier). BUT in doing so, he can also screw AOL. Remember that AOL's greatest liability is their network costs and their reliance upon third parties (a slew of them) to provide it. Armstrong knew that a broadband service with compelling content and value added services would sink AOL. Case knew this too. To the surprise of many (me included,and I worked there at the time) ATHM merges with XCIT. We now have a potential AOL on steroids, broadband connectivity and content to go with it. Within the same timeframe, the T/TCI merger is approved by the SEC and gets the blessing of the FCC. What does Case do? Exactly what he should, bitch and moan for open access. T could probably fight AOL, the local municipalities and all the other freeloaders who want access to the HFC plant and prevail but doing so only slows T's ability to offer additional services to customers. Nobody wants this, including the FCC who is supposed to be encouraging competition, not inhibiting it....hence we have Kennard's assertion that this decision is federal, not local. While all this was going on, T announces a deal with MediaOne, adding more fuel to Case's assumption that AOL will be left high and dry in the broadband arena. T, by the way, is a dumb pipe provider. That is their business. ATHM's purchase of XCIT, IMHO, was a ploy by Armstrong to show Case that he could and would go up against AOL. Armstrong has balls of steel and threatens to give away Worldnett service to prove it. Case now rallies other ISP's to align themselves in calling for open access to the HFC plant. AOL spends tons of $$$$ to get the media and incompetent politicians on its bandwagon which causes T and ATHM stock to slide. Armstrong comes to the realization that he's got something CAse wants and Case has something he wants. They start talking. Remember, T is a dumb pipe provider, and AOL depends upon dumb pipe providers to offer its service. Efficiencies can be achieved here.... T can sell/trade/exchange the XCIT portion of ATHM for AOL shares and turn the ISP portion of ATHM into an HFC reseller. AOL can sign a long term agreement with the ISP portion of ATHM to buy local loops from it. The ISP ATHM can also resell local loops to other ISP's, effectively opening access. I've stated a few times that ATHM's exclusivity was NOT an asset but a liability as the cost of access is trending down and should it trend to $0, what good is exclusivity. Remember Teleport Communications Group (TCG)? It was started by Cox, Comcast and TCI to resell fiber capacity on their networks. ATHM could accomplish the same only on a much larger scale. TCG was bought by T for $10B and was comprised of 3 MSO's. ATHM is comprised of 21 MSO's...think of the valuation that could be assigned. my $.02 tom

To: FIRENZA who wrote (15984)	10/7/1999 10:57:00 AM
From: Killian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Firenza! Best damn post I've read on this thread since Dec. Thanks for your insight! Kevin