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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OX who wrote (28630)	10/7/1999 12:35:00 AM
From: Ms. X	Respond to of 99985

Haven't posted here in a while but I wanted to give a PnF update to the market. The indicators we have are currently still in O's, being negative, however showing strength on the week. We look here for short term indicators to reverse up indicating a rally in the market. Even with the Dow moving up this week the advance decline line shows more decliners than advancers and our main indicator the NYSE BP did move down .1% on the week. This indicates there are still more stocks giving new sells than new buys. But, on the 10 week chart we are very close to a reversal up and also with the High Low index. The Optional BP moved up well this week and we will be watching this daily for a reversal up. Should the above three reverse up we will then have our short term indicators in positive territory indicating a short term rally. We will not consider it long term until the NYSE BP reverses up. Until then we consider plays as trade only with stops and profits taken when realized. The DJBB which measures the Dow Jones 20 Bond average is still in a column of O's. It lost some ground this week, not surprising with Greeny speaking, but it too is not far from a reversal up (which would come at 100.80). This would be a positive for bonds and for the interest rate front (as far as them not going up farther). The market is raising rates for Greeny so far and I wasn't surprised he didn't raise this week. All of our indicators are in over sold territory. Last year in October the NYSE BP moved down to one of its lowest reading in years. This year it has moved within 20 percentage points but still in very good territory. What this means is a reversal up from this area would indicate good upside potential in the market. Last year this proved to be true and we look for a good buying opp this year as well. Things are usually choppy in this area so we look for volatility before a bottom is created - but - it does look like the market is trying to create that bottom. We will know once the indicators reverse. Last year we were able to call the October 8th buying opp. I don't ever expect to be able to do that again but I believe we will be able to see when the opportunity presents itself. Here is a sector bell curve. This shows where the sectors are weighted. To the left is over sold, to the right is over bought. In April the sector bell curve was more to the right and middle. As you can see here the sectors have corrected downward and most are in excellent buying range. Those in large cap are in an uptrend, those in small case are in a downtrend at this time. October 5, 1999 \| \| \| \| savg game \| chem wast \| text INET \| rest util \| frst osrv leis SOFT auto heal comp medi metl bank hous tran SEMI elec insu retl food real drug oil aero buil finl prot latn asia gas wall mach busi stee tele biom euro PREC -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Oh, the MU 100's Relative strength just reversed into X's suggesting large caps are out performing the market. If trading certainly look to these for some ideas. Best of luck to everyone, I hope to post here more often. Of course we will be keeping the indicators in discussion over on the PnF and DWA thread. Jan I am

To: OX who wrote (28630)	10/7/1999 8:19:00 AM
From: Matthew L. Jones	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

How do you like TRIN compared to Stochastics and RSI for over bought over sold readings? Matt

To: OX who wrote (28630)	10/7/1999 8:19:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

OX, >>>> I also noticed that the NYSE NH/NL was worse all day today than yesterday's (except for the NL at the close which pulled to just less than yesterdays)... I think this is just lagging tho. <<<< decisionpoint.com Per the above chart both the NL and NH worsened slightly. Although Im aware that it takes time for the NL/NH to catch up and lags, subjectively I have to consider the fact that the market was up very strong and was positive from the open. Such positive move in the price action should have at least produced at least some sort of improvement in either the NL/NH. Therefore I consider that a short-term negative and needs confirmation. What it also tells me is that the rally was still narrow, and SECTOR ROTATION was still alive. Granted that most of the major indices were up strong, but the broader market still lagged. Im not saying that the market cant move higher and that some/few sectors cant set new highs, but Im still inclined to call a TRADING RANGE as we have seen since the spring. seeya