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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fedhead who wrote (28635)	10/7/1999 8:56:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Anindo, i don't believe that we have seen the highs for interest rates at all...the Fed is behind the curve, and the bond market knows it. yes, stocks can still move higher while bonds continue to plunge...but at some point the overvaluation of stocks relative to bonds WILL be corrected, and likely in a sudden and violent move. i agree in principle that it is bullish if the market advances in the face of bad news. however, extreme reality disconnect is just that...it works for a while, but not forever. what exactly makes you think that gold has topped out? imo it is consolidating and getting ready for the next leg up. since the threat of European CB's selling and leasing has disappeared, gold should be subject to normal supply/demand factors. and there has been a persistent and growing supply deficit accumulated over the years. without the CB's artificially pushing the price down, it should begin to reflect the supply/demand fundamentals. in my judgement we're still far away from equilibrium. regards, hb

To: fedhead who wrote (28635)	10/7/1999 9:29:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

As Linda Richman would say, the tightening bias was neither a tighening nor a bias. They inserted a statement in the press release saying they weren't committed to any near-term action on rates. That negated the whole bias. As for oil, they also got hit by the increase in inventories. The market may pull back on a very short-term basis but I still have a lot of new trend reversal buy signals on individual stocks by about 49% to 51% ratio over sells. I usually get an intermediate-term market reversal when the ratio gets over 80% on one or the other type of signal.