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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (7778)	10/7/1999 11:26:00 PM
From: Sommers	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Eric, I had to chuckle to myself after thinking we are like two kids challenging each other to list why a racing machine is so powerful! We're all on this cigarette boat together. I just want to be sure we all know why Q is what she is. And yes, I believe Lindy pointed out months ago the CDMA carrier's ability to offer 14.4 Kbps, while GSM is only at 9.6 Kbps. The point I wanted to make clear was the lead ( >18 months) CDMA currently has over TDMA and GSM wireless capacity. You made clear Armstrong's move to upgrade to EDGE, but like Ellison's Network Computer, it can take years for a competing technology to reach the point where it can be deployed. As you know, EDGE is touting data rates up to 384 Kbps, but remember that's ATLEAST 3 years away from now. CDMA2000 plans to rollout 153 Kbps in trials beginning next year. The Street must know this by now, hence (one of the reasons anyway) the steady accumulation. I believe it was Uncle Frank or Lindy who described Q best saying, "...massive upside, limited downside....." The upshot is that CDMA 2.5 will clearly hit Main Street well before the "new" GSM or TDMA systems. And what's more, GSM and TDMA will have to SACRIFICE voice capacity in order to add data! Let's be frank. The TDMA and GSM carriers are just trying to keep up with CDMA. CDMA2000 (157 Kbps and double the voice channels per site) is what's forcing Mr. Armstrong to move to EDGE - while at the same time risking pissing off his voice customers as the his cell site availability decreases. He is a smart man, to be sure, with many irons is the fire, but he plays a dangerous game. Let's face it, if the reverse were true we'd all have a compelling reason to dump Q in the morning. But that's not the case and Q will shoot the moon. I can't believe these facts aren't at least in the top five list of reasons to buy Q. The tide is rising around TDMA and GSM. And to quote the Great One, "...they can only move up the tree for so long." Relax and have a safe trip. Godspeed, --Sommers