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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (7803)	10/7/1999 1:03:00 PM
From: pann1128	Respond to of 54805

Forrester research on GMST: Here are some the excerpts taken from Yahoo thread: Gemstar/TV Guide: Birth Of A Media Powerhouse October 5, 1999 by Josh Bernoff, Joseph L. Butt, Jr. ============================================================================ Gemstar agreed to buy TV Guide International from News Corp. and Liberty Media for $7.7 billion. The new company will supply an electronic program guide (EPG) to one-fourth of US homes by 2004, creating a media property with unparalleled reach. ============================================================================ Gemstar, with 2 million guides going into TVs and VCRs this year, is the only significant supplier of EPGs to the consumer electronics industry. TV Guide provides listings to 2 million digital cable boxes and will dominate cable guide sales. With interactive EPGs reaching 55 million Americans four to 10 times daily by 2004, ad-supported guides will emerge as a massive new media opportunity. Gemstar/TV Guide will become the first media powerhouse of the interactive TV era. * Personal video recorder (PVR) vendors emerge as the guide contenders. PVR vendors TiVo and Replay will generate much of the new growth in EPG sales. The big networks, investors in both, will back them to create competition in the EPG market and diminish Gemstar's power. Gemstar's litigious CEO, Henry Yuen, will sue Replay for patent infringement over its grid-based recording technology. The distraction will allow TiVo to extend its lead in the new field. * Satellite operators must band together. Bitter satellite rivals Echostar and DirecTV, taken together, will control one-fourth of EPGs. While they currently supply EPGs free of ads as a satellite selling point, the rise of cable EPGs will force them to consider ad sales to reduce subscriber costs. Their most effective competitive strategy against the new giant Gemstar/TV Guide will be to create a joint guide venture with a combined ad sales force. * Portals beware. The Gemstar/TV Guide merger will accelerate the rise of ad-supported EPGs. As EPGs add interactivity, their massive reach will siphon drive-by ads from portals like Yahoo! and Lycos. Look for network-backed portals like Snap and Infoseek to add EPGs heavy on interactivity, exploiting cross-media sales opportunities as they search for a toehold on cable set-top boxes. Interesting that they are suing Replay and not TIVO. Piyush

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (7803)	10/7/1999 1:05:00 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Hi uf, >> But I might suggest that you would do better to focus on technical analysis as opposed to Gorilla hunting methodology if you feel timing is a critical to your portfolio's health. << Speaking of which, I've been talking with a TA devotee offline and I asked about GMST.. We both think it's finding it's equilibrium here and is probably a safe buy. bp

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (7803)	10/7/1999 5:19:00 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

<<I know you've had some very positive experiences in [timing] lately>> I wish! the only good timing move I made was to pester a buddy into putting me on his IPO's "friends and family" list! Otherwise I'm a great contrarian indicator: my biggest single move into the market this year was on July 16... :( <<but I contend it can't be done with any degree of reliability over time....I might suggest that you would do better to focus on technical analysis as opposed to Gorilla hunting methodology>> Um, I realize that I'm going to get a ton of flaming for this, but just what evidence is there that TA produces good results "with any degree of reliability over time"? :) But on to specifics: a practical timing question I invite replies on from any perspective. Last quarter I unthinkingly bought in just before earnings results, and got hammered (thanks all!) when people "sold on the news." This quarter's results are coming up soon, and there certainly seems to be a lot of "buying on the rumor." Given a fixed pool of cash, should one invest tomorrow or wait a few weeks, trying to take advantage of either a general market dip or a post-earnings sell-off dip? (I have in mind companies like SEBL, JDSU, ARMHY, etc. QCOM and GMST get their share as soon as the cash appears in the account!) thanks for any suggestions, tekboy@timingvictim.com PS I find Eric J.'s psychological argument against timing--that in practice you will find it extraordinarily difficult to do what your mind tells you to do--the most persuasive one so far. I guess I was hoping that if, say, all of you wise folks agreed on a particular timing move then that would overcome my own timidity and self-doubts...