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Technology Stocks : BMC Software -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: khacha who wrote (962)	10/7/1999 2:46:00 PM
From: Edwarda	Respond to of 1492

I think in may be due to the mainframe sector of the company which accounts for about 2/3 of the revenue becoming gradually displaced by distributed systems. It may be a reflection of the industry wide trend, which should affect other mainframe software vendors. MIPs growth is slowing, but even if shipment growth is around 40%, BMC should not be in serious trouble. BTW, other mainframe software vendors are not seeing the shift as being more rapid than expected.

To: khacha who wrote (962)	10/10/1999 3:16:00 PM
From: jraz1	Respond to of 1492

Here's my 2 cents on BMC's shortfall... - BMC is currently 95% owned by institutions... 227m of the 239m outstanding shares... (that's more the 184m share float)... add in the "insider" ownership and the 12 of us on this board and your are at 99.999% of the total ownership. This means that institutions move this stock up or down at will! - the last time BMC miss their earnings # the "institutions" sold and sold until they drove BMC's PE into the 20's - over the last couple of months the institutions have reduced their ownership by about 1.5% - we have one huge thing in our favour... as Peter Lynch said, "they leave foot prints." This means that if the institutions turn negative on BMC, which I believe they are, they can't dump their shares as quickly as you or I (which I already have done and I even bought some October 60 puts). - BMC will continue to face some selling pressure for a while... but for how long? (If I knew, I wouldn't have a day job and I would be writing to you from some island in the Pacific.) - BMC does have very strong products in both the mainframe and the ESM spaces and will continue to grow long term. My theory is "us mice should be off the dance floor while the elephants dance" (i.e., until the institutions stop dump shares). I know BMC products and truly believe that they have a strong long-term future... so when the elephants stop dancing I will be back in big time. But, remember the institutional guys are professionals and great at what they do. They will try to head fake us several times. Use caution before jumping on this buying opportunity. That is my 2 cents worth... hope it is useful. J Raz