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Gold/Mining/Energy : Comstock Resources (CRK), Much to Like! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: r.edwards who wrote (4)10/10/1999 12:17:00 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 20
 
r. edwards,

Great to find another CRK fan here at SI! The Yahoo CRK thread has been pretty brutal for some reason.

I believe the biggest reason for the low valuation on CRK is the lack of news over the last few months. The delay in testing the lastest Double A Wells field well was that something got stuck in the hole. My understanding is that it is all cleared out now and the formation is still intact.

I really wanna buy some more of this stock in order to average down, but can't decide whether to buy on Tuesday, before the Luhrs #3 news, or wait for that to come out and then buy in after the "sell-on-the-news" folks are done doing their dirtywork.

In any event its hard to see where you can go wrong buying a stock for about 1.5 x next year's cash flow (estimated using conservative assumptions).



To: r.edwards who wrote (4)11/7/1999 1:14:00 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 20
 
Topped off the position on Friday with a buy at $3.94. In my view a very likely scenario is that the stock bobs around $4 one more day tomorrow and then blasts to the $4.50 mark or so on the 3Q press release. Not that the results for the quarter will be that great, but I am betting that CRK will mention what their current production rates are, as compared to where they were for 3Q, and folks will suddenly realize how much impact these wells in the Double A field are having.

BTW, I found a way to buy stocks such as CRK on margin. Accutrade will allow listed stocks to be bought on 50% margin down to $4, and between $2 and $4 you need to put up at least $2. Buying on margin really ups the ante, in both directions obviously, but I feel real good about this one.



To: r.edwards who wrote (4)11/9/1999 9:06:00 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 20
 
Produced 8.7 BCFE 3Q vs. 9 BCFE for 2Q. We knew it would be about flat going in... Only disappointment is the fairly sharp drop in oil production.

Each Double A Wells well produces about a half a BCFE a quarter, so with the one they hit in October plus the one they are completing now, they look to be producing at about a 10%-higher rate than what they averaged for 3Q. Plus, notice that this latest well found 64 ft. of pay in the Woodbine vs. about 44 ft. for the earlier well I believe.

Only downer is that they went 0 for 2 on their exploratory wells in the GOM this quarter. Looks like the law of averages is catching up with them over there.

Not likely that CRK will dip below 2 x 3Q annualized basic cash flow per share, or $3.20, IMO. Folks see the upcoming increases in production and will buy on dips, IMO. In any event, thanking my lucky stars that I left some buffer zone in the borrowing power, so no margin calls so far, nor is any expected as long as the stock can hold the $3 mark.

Does anyone know how deep the Carter #12 is trying to go? That one is testing the lower Woodbine in addition to the upper Woodbine so it would seem to be headed for deeper TD.

Overall, see no major causes for concern. Am prepared to wait until year-end reserves are announced for vindication on this one, but I feel that CRK fans will be smiling long before that.



To: r.edwards who wrote (4)1/6/2000 10:18:00 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 20
 
I believe there is a "flight to value" going on right now. The Nasdaq market is getting absolutely crushed, and the funds want to keep the money somewhere in the market, so they are buying up the stocks having obvious value (i.e. stocks with predictable cash flows that are selling below book value).

I talked with my buddy at CRK and found out that the reason the Carter #12 took so long is that the drill bit got stuck when the drilled down to the deep stuff in the Lower Woodbine. All is clear now and they are getting it logged as we speak. I wonder if the Carter #12 logging technician was buying a bit of CRK today?? <g>

I was ever-so-close to jettisoning this turkey but I think I'll hang in another coupla days and see if the Nasdaq carnage (and concomitant flight to value stocks) continues.

My buddy says if the stock is still this low-priced after they issue their year-end reserves numbers, don't be surprised if they take the company private in an LBO.