To: J.T. who wrote (780 ) 10/7/1999 7:09:00 PM From: marginmike Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19219
I thought you might want to read this JT from TSC Picking on Pixar: From the day it went public in late 1995, Pixar (PIXR:Nasdaq) has been a "story" stock. Sure, there's Toy Story and its upcoming sequel, Toy Story 2, but the real story is how Wall Street pitches Pixar not as an investment, but as a cyclical trade. Don't forget, this was a company whose IPO was timed to coincide with the release of the original "Toy Story," a strategy that caused its stock to soar as the stock was sold to gullible individuals hoping to cash in on the story of Woody and the gang, only to watch the stock sink after the movie -- the very successful movie -- made its debut. Such has been the story of Pixar ever since. Go back and look at a chart before last fall's rollout of A Bug's Life (and read Alex Berenson's take at the time). And look what's happening now in front of Toy Story 2. Last month Prudential analyst Katherine Styponias, for example, upgraded Pixar to a "strong buy" from "hold" in part because the marketing behind the new movie "should act as a very potent catalyst in propelling the shares closer to our price target." And Seidler's Jeffrey Logsdon, upgrading from a "neutral" to "strong buy," wrote that the stock's summertime swoon "provides a nice trading opportunity for nimble, aggressive investors." And therein lies the trouble: When the call goes out to sell, everybody won't be able to get out at the same time because, as one veteran short-seller says, "Everybody has the same strategy." What's more, after Toy Story 2, the next Pixar movie won't be out for at least two years. That translates into a lack of earnings predictability. (Not good for a stock that trades at around 58 times this year's expected earnings.) "It's a fool's game," the short-seller says, "with hedge funds selling to retail." Unfortunately for investors, Pixar's stock has never been as good as its movies. For its part, Pixar says that, over the long term, it believes its library of films will make this a story with a happy ending. (Fine, but how many chapters are in the book?!) My, my -- seen Midway?: At item