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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (28697)	10/7/1999 6:40:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Clearly, the Fed: 1. wants long-term interest rates to rise, and 2. doesn't want stocks to go up. "Flattening" for stock prices is the goal. Key sentence: "The absence of further large gains in stock prices, should recent trends persist, would remove this stimulus and probably induce some moderation in the growth of consumer spending."

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (28697)	10/7/1999 10:01:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

Good condensation of the meeting but I am trying to figure this line out. Are we just swapping goods? >>>The rise in imports was spread widely across the major trade categories; sharply higher prices for imported oil, along with a moderate addition in the quantity imported, accounted for much of the rise, but there also were sizable step-ups in imports of computers, semiconductors, and industrial supplies--notably building materials. The increase in exports was concentrated in agricultural goods, automotive products, industrial supplies, computers, and semiconductors <<< I just woke up and am running through my charts. I have short term to class 2 over bought signals on almost every major index and sector index. The size of the pullback should give the clue to the longer term picture. As I said earlier, the moves seem to be dead cat bounces of over sold issues mostly and the previous darlings like SUNW, EMC etc stalled to catch thier breath or else fuel the buying in the other "on sale" stocks. P&F shows a nice improvement in many that I follow so we could really be changing trend but though the stock charts hint at a bullish slant, the TYX chart also shows about the same bias to the upside. The two should not both be able to move up together. As I believe heinz pointed out, at some point the pain will be too great in interest rates/bond and the high flyers will have to capitulate. Maybe they will wait till after earnings season, options expiration or some other trigger we don't see on the horizon yet. Good Luck, Lee