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To: NickSE who wrote (67266)	10/7/1999 8:09:00 PM
From: NickSE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

U.S. Economy: Consumer Borrowing Surges in August Bhttp://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=U.S.%20Economy&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=f315deca1a4807db8312525cc0f343cc Washington, Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer borrowing posted its largest increase in August in seven months, as Americans took on more debt to buy automobiles and make other big purchases, Federal Reserve figures showed today. Borrowing rose by $10.8 billion in August to a total of $1.37 trillion. The increase was bigger than the $6.6 billion expected by analysts and follows a gain of $8.9 billion in July. The Fed originally reported July borrowing had risen $8.8 billion. The increase means consumer debt grew at an annual rate of 9.6 percent in August, compared with 7.9 percent in July and 5.4 percent in 1998. And shoppers were still packing store aisles in September: sales at retail chains rose a higher-than-expected 6.7 percent from a year earlier, a private industry report showed today.

To: NickSE who wrote (67266)	10/7/1999 8:11:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 86076

Nick, you may be right of course...the effect of Y2K is really hard to gauge before the actual event. Luc has suggested that oil and oil related stocks may even have begun to signal a coming recession...if that is true, my commodity boom won't happen of course. but a scenario that could also develop would be one of stagflation as in the 70's, basically an inflationary recession. commodities have just begun to stir from a long term bear market...it stands to reason that a cyclical bull market in commodities may have begun. look at the CRB chart...if that doesn't look like a bottoming formation, what does? in fact if one looks at the current 17 item CRB, it has bottomed exactly at the same level as in '86, a long term double bottom that could be potentially very significant. regards, hb