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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (28708)	10/7/1999 8:35:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I think yesterday was the unwinding of some big bet against the market. This is jim cramer's view, and it seems right to me. Nutz today is just hot money. Don is right-- sector rotation. Did you read that article in the WSJ on Julian Robertson? I'd hate to have to make a living at this stuff!!

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (28708)	10/7/1999 9:05:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

GZ, i have been aware of the Dowguru site for some time now...and he made a striking prediction in '97 about the likely path the Dow would take in '98 based on comparisons with the market of the 1920's. this prediction did in fact come true...a sharp fall followed by a recovery and a climb to new highs. by applying an approximate ratio of 40:1 to the '28 Dow he worked out where the highs and lows of the Dow in '98 should approximately lie. i don't know how he figured out that the chart patterns would repeat themselves in this manner, but fractal geometry and Elliot wave theory are both based on pattern repetitions which seem to be a part of the order of nature. i have closely examined the chart of '87 after the crash, and like others have noticed that it too was a repetition of the '29 pattern, the correlation was in fact remarkable. for other views of these patterns look at futuresfax.com which among other things has also comparisons of the '87 and '99 bond markets in relation to equities. another site that looks at the chart patterns of various markets in '87 is this one: arts.unimelb.edu.au what is alarming about the '87 charts specifically is that they show many of the inter-market relations that have become strained now, were strained back then as well. this is not to say that we will indeed have a repeat performance, i.e. a crash...that is something that is virtually impossible to predict since it is such a rare event. but imo one should at the very least prepare for the possibility of a sizeable correction at some point if the inter-market strains do not abate. in other words, bonds, oil, gold and the dollar should be watched closely for signs of further deterioration. similar to '87, the current account and trade deficits are currently exploding. the first half of '99, just as the first half of '87, was characterized by massive inflows of foreign funds into U.S. equities. if anything should cause this flow of funds to reverse, a dramatic decline in stock prices would not be out of the question. we are all familiar(since it is an experience of the most recent past) how prices of certain stocks can soar to incredible heights in a buying panic...no-one can really argue that the blow-offs made in the mania stocks were in any way rational. the same irrationality takes hold in a selling panic, which is why one can never really rule out that one will occur. i repeat that this is not meant to predict imminent disaster - but a massive shift of assets from stocks to bonds for instance is certainly possible should bond yields climb furhter. what is not known of course is where the cut-off point for such an asset shift currently lies, but clearly the stock market exhibits a degree of nervousness, as money concentrates in fewer and fewer issues. whatever one's view on the future course of the market, it can not be denied that several red flags have been raised of late, so this is probably a good time to exercise some caution... regards, hb

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (28708)	10/7/1999 9:17:00 PM
From: Kip518	Respond to of 99985

I also don't like the way there was no follow through today in any of the major indices... we may very well be in a bear retracement and near the top of it as well... GZ, reminded me of Shepler's statement, "Weak Thursday's tend to be the hallmark of a bear or corrective trend ..." Kip urbansurvival.com

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (28708)	10/7/1999 10:12:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>we may very well be in a bear retracement and near the top of it as well..<< I also was thinking of a bullish fib retrace I just noticed tonight. Does anyone have any thoughts thatthe Dollar drop is a fib retrace of the longer term rise over the last year? I show the DXY was around 92 in Sept last year with a rally to 104 this summer and now we are moving back down to the 97 area. This should be approaching the make or break level soon for either a fib retrace or else something more serious. EDIT - Benkea - Yeah, but the A/D isn't going up with the recent rally either. Is the glass half full or half empty? <g> Good Luck, Lee