There's heavy seasonal adjustment in the Sep report due to teachers. See below:
US BLS: EVEN WITH FLOYD, SEPT 'FAIRLY WEAK' JOBS MONTH
08:53 EDT 10/08
By Denny Gulino
WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Payrolls unexpectedly declined in September, losing 8,000 jobs, but would have been up just a "fairly weak" 50,000 even without the effects of Hurricane Floyd, the Labor Department reported Friday morning.
If Floyd had not cut 58,000 jobs, September payrolls would have been way below expectations -- except in the category of hourly earnings which rose 7 cents -- because of a setback in the usual engine of payrolls growth, services employment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
In fact, the category of finance employment saw its first decline in over four years, due to the loss of 6,000 jobs in mortgage banking, the report said.
Services employment grew by only 39,000 in September, well under the average monthly gain of 126,000 for the previous 12 months.
Unadjusted payrolls in September grew by 630,000 jobs, illustrating the size of the month's aggressive seasonal lean strongly linked to the return to work of schoolteachers.
In several industries, the payrolls decline was not due to the hurricane, the BLS said. Overall, industries with lots of part-time workers showed the biggest hurricane effects, with retail trade off 49,000. Job growth in health services was a modest 8,000.
"Most businesses in the survey were a bit weaker than normal, and when you combine that with the hurricane effects we can identify, it all adds up to a fairly weak month," BLS senior analyst Phil Rones told Market News International as the report was being made public.
"Business services was relatively weak, a lot of that in health supply services, with some hurricane effect," he said. "Because the hurricane basically came through during the (survey) week, our best guess is that industries with a lot of part-time workers would be hit harder than those with full-timers."
"If you had full-time workers who worked on that Monday, even if you were shut down the rest of the week, you'd have no change in your employment levels," Rones said. "But part-timers could end up not working at all (during the week) and industries where we think we see some storm effect are generally those with a lot of part time help, and help supply would be one of them."
On earnings, the 7 cent increase was generally in line with the year's trend if viewed as part of the third quarter. "Because they jump around a bit from month to month, particularly where you have a quarter to look at," the 7 cent increase was not too impressive, he said. "The quarter was 13 cents and the first two quarters of the year were 13 cents also. Last year the (end) quarters were basically 12 and, in the fourth quarter, 10 cents.
Manufacturing jobs dropped by 21,000 but construction rose 21,000, almost offsetting the loss in the prior month. Transportation and public utilities added 20,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate for September remained unchanged at 4.2%.
Expectations in a Market News International survey of 22 economists centered on a gain of 220,000 in September payrolls, with hours at 34.4 and earnings up 0.3%.
>>>With the shortage of teacher candidates, it's quite
>>>possible that they may have overadjusted for the
>>>school year hiring. |
