To: stock bull who wrote (144174 ) 10/8/1999 10:29:00 AM From: JRI Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
I am actually fairly positive about things (big surprise)...look, there is quite a bit of fear about Fed raising rates in November...some (maybe most) of that, already priced into the bond... So, if the Fed raises in November, the market will probably be relieved (because we won't see another hike around Christmas) for sure...Fed will be on hold until Feb, at least... If the Fed doesn't raise in November, I still think Nov.-Jan. period (stocks) will do well, because of seasonal factors, bond yield going below 6.00% (flight-to-quality).. The Fed will be adding liquidity around the NEW YEAR..that should help the markets... The two Fed rate hikes are working their way thru the economy, and we will start seeing it in the housing start numbers, other ways.... The Fed also realizes that there is likely a demand spike here (before Y2K), and there will likely be a demand drop-off in Q1 '00..so a Fed rate hike next Feb. is not a sure thing either... The Fed looks at reports in their entirety, not just one months..so the wage gains, although troublesome, will be kept in (some) perspective....Jobs (loss)....2nd month in a row that that report is going in the (right? sounds funny) direction re: bond bulls... Oil will not be going to $ 30 and sustaining...so we have seen the worse there....likely back to low 20's or 20... So, repeating...I really like the November-January period, especially if we remain at today's levels (over the next month)...HOWEVER, I like the fact that we are in the earnings period here until November (and earnings will be great)....and, after that, then we are in Dell's earnings run period.... If Dell delivers a .21, and a positive forward, I would expect will can hold 49/50 and hang there, or trade in the 50-55 range until next earnings.... There is a ton of cash on the sidelines... I remain positive (although many traders are looking for a really nice selloff, panic day, to get back into the market).