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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mare Britton who wrote (80053)	10/8/1999 10:46:00 AM
From: Eric Wells	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Mare - while you may not be seeking advice, I would advise you to use an extreme amount of caution interpreting any predictions on stock price movements from anyone on SI (myself included). The AMZN bulls will tell you that with the Holiday season upon us and Amazon's new zShops initiative that AMZN might generate a lot of sales between now and the end of the year. The bulls say Jeff Bezos is a true visionary, that his strategy of sacrificing profits to invest in expanding into more retail categories is the right thing to do at this time. The bulls will also say the impact of Wednesday's blow-out earnings report from Yahoo will work to lift the whole internet sector. The AMZN bears will tell you that AMZN is grossly over-valued, that Amazon has yet to make a profit, and that Amazon management is making strategic guesses on how to make money with no clear direction. The bears see the recent zShops initiative as more hype than anything substantive that can contribute to profits - and the bears will tell you that Wal-Mart, once it's new web site is up and running, will pose a real threat to Amazon. Amazon is certain to report increasing losses this quarter, but the bears will warn you that the investment banking analysts (such as Meeker and Blodget) are likely to paint such losses in a good light in order to save their own firm's investments in Amazon. The bears will also tell you that the Fed's recent tightening bias, the recent run-up in the price of gold, record trade deficit, record corporate and personal debt, record retail sales - that all these factors point to a potential increase in inflation and therefore a greater chance that the Fed will tighten in November - and that such tightening will have a negative impact on internet stock prices, including AMZN. Personally, I have no clue what AMZN will do. I will admit to being a bear with regard to the current market, especially the internet sector. And mind you, I'm no technophobe nor luddite - I am in fact a true believer in the internet (I run a consulting firm that does work advising corporate clients on internet strategy, and in building web-based applications). I realize this post is probably of no help to you in making a decision - not that I thought it would be. I view investing in internet stocks kind of like playing roulette. Thanks, -Eric Wells