To: Robert Sheldon who wrote (1229 ) 10/10/1999 8:41:00 PM From: pat mudge Respond to of 2702
Geneva focuses on mobile:telecom99news.itu.int And from the Financial Times: TELECOM 99: The future is mobile The internet and mobile telephony combined have the potential to bring about business and social change on a scale far greater than either on its own. That much is clear from the most cursory glance around the stands at Telecom 99, the giant exhibition and conference which opened in Geneva on the weekend. It is harder to predict the precise form the changes will take, but it is clear they will come quickly. In 1995, when Telecom was last staged, the liberalisation of telecoms markets in the US and Europe lay in the future. The 1996 US Telecommunications Act unleashed a ferment of merger and acquisition activity as operators sought economies of scale, geographic reach and control over the quality of networks. With the acquisition of the long-distance operator Sprint by MCI WorldCom earlier this month, consolidation in the US may have reached a plateau. The original seven Bell regional operators have been reduced to four. WorldCom has absorbed the second and third largest long-distance carriers. Attention is turning to Europe, where some argue up to 50 per cent of existing operators could be merged or acquired within a few years. Some deals, like the merger of Telia of Sweden and Telenor of Norway, may be all-European affairs. But the abortive attempt by Deutsche Telekom to seize Telecom Italia earlier this year showed how deep the differences between European carriers can run. US operators with highly valued shares may be able to take advantage of these internecine rivalries to take the lead in the consolidation of the European industry. There is considerable interest, for example, in the close relationship between AT&T, the largest US long-distance carrier, and British Telecommunications. They already have two alliances, one in fixed wire services, the other in mobile. In Geneva they were trumpeting their fixed-wire alliance, Concert, in a low key way because it has yet to be cleared by the US regulatory authorities. But some believe it is only a matter of time before AT&T assimilates BT completely. A better guide to the future, however, may be the deal at the beginning of the year when Vodafone merged with the US mobile operator AirTouch to form the world's largest mobile concern. For it is becoming increasingly clear mobile telephony will take over most of the telecoms services we take for granted today. It will also become the main tool for accessing the internet. If Telecom 99 is a guide, the future lies in mobile services and in the internet, and with carriers able to provide both these services. Europe, through its GSM initiative, remains a leader in mobile telephony. This is the future of communications. The wireline business looks like yesterday's industry.