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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: greg nus who wrote (74684)	10/8/1999 7:46:00 PM
From: Yougang Xiao	Respond to of 1572780

greg,<<All AMd has to do to make a buck a share is make, sell and ship the 1,000,000 Athlons @ around $300.00. for $300 million in revenue.>> Wont happen for Q4, likely case is Athlon ASP @ 270 or so. <<CPU division made and sold 4.3 million K6 @ $65 ASP.>> Q3 K6x ASP was around 55, not 65. <<So with higher bin speed migraton ASP could improve ASP to $75.>> God bless AMD to maintain K6s ASP @ 55 in Q4! <<Dresden come through in 4th qtr.>> Just like to have Jerry resign, nuh! If they can deliver everything promised in CC, the stock will move.

To: greg nus who wrote (74684)	10/8/1999 9:04:00 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 1572780

Greg RE <<<Tejek, All AMd has to do to make a buck a share is make, sell and ship the 1,000,000 Athlons @ around $300.00. for $300 million in revenue. That said everything else just has to stay static. Sanders stated Flash is completly sold out for 4th qtr. So with rich density mix and favorable pricing Flsd revenue should come close to $250 Million. CPU division made and sold 4.3 million K6 @ $65 ASP. So with higher bin speed migraton ASP could improve ASP to $75. Figure a slight increase in K-6 ramp to produce 4.5 to 5 million K-6's, for $375 million. Communications will contribute 80 million and the Vantis foundry 20 million. That's close to a billion in revenue, minus the 850 million in operating revenue, leaving $150 million to divy to 149 million share holders. Buck a share. The cash bleed issue disapears and becomes a mute point. Dresden could be a trump card. Should AMD manage to shipp any meaningful. production out of Dresden as Sanders indicated, it would be Copper Athlons @ .18mu, high end richer ASP mix. Should Dresden not come through in 4th qtr. it will start contributing to 1st qrt 2000.>>> Two problems with your scenario......ASPs currently just below 300 but sanders said they will migrate south as volume increases. I think yo xi is suggesting 270; that's probably a good figure, maybe a little high. Secondly sanders said (and this was the one negative for me in the CC), Dresden will not contribute to the bottom line until 2000 (2nd half I believe). ted