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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (28871)	10/8/1999 7:27:00 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, I know that you asked Heinz, but since I just commented on this on the P&F thread..... #reply-11492829 EDIT: Just ran across this about IBM. Mentions the y2k affect. dailynews.yahoo.com JXM

To: HairBall who wrote (28871)	10/8/1999 7:32:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, that sounds like a very probable scenario to me. my feeling (sorry<g>) is that at the moment there is a wait and see attitude predominating with regards to the bond market. many players are probably prepared to jump in, but are hoping to see higher yields first...or rather, want to wait for economic data relating to inflation before jumping in. but most probably the buying of bonds will as you say coincide with selling in the stock market, as assets are shifted from one to the other. this should in fact happen sooner rather than later, as December is an unlikely month for such 'big money' transactions to take place, for fear that settlement problems might arise due to Y2K. one should probably prepare for the mother of all buying opportunities in stocks coming along on January 2, UNLESS Y2K has worse effects than currently advertised. the U.S. army and navy are reportedly preparing for the possibility of a worst case scenario...if such a scenario were to come to pass, a global recession as predicted by Dr. Yardeni would surely ensue, in which case bonds would continue to outperform stocks in early 2,000. otoh, if it's a non-event, we'll probably get a massive rally in stocks. regards, hb

To: HairBall who wrote (28871)	10/8/1999 7:32:00 PM
From: Don Green	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

> I have fostered the expectation that Y2K would be at least, a self fulfilling prophecy before the end of this year. LG I totally agree and feel after this earnings period is out of the way the snowball downward will begin. That is why I said Oct 19 may be key. After that, there is little to attract money and one HUGE doubt to encourage profit-taking. Americans like to wait until the last moment to act, so some might wait until after Bird Day. I personally think it WILL slide well under 10K toward 9000 or lower before Santa comes to town. I also expect a HUGE rally soon after the lights come back on, if for no other reason all of the CASH refunds for THEM Electric Generators should provide a good kick-start to 2000. regards Don