To: Saturn V who wrote (89756 ) 10/10/1999 1:39:00 AM From: Rob Young Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 186894
streetadvisor.com "The Itanium processor is perhaps the most robust processor ever built. With Intel's billions of dollars of research and development funds pouring into its development, it will be virtually impossible for the Alpha processor to maintain any current lead for much longer." Okay.. I'll take a stab at that. Maybe the guy is just getting started or has Sun confused with Compaq's Alpha. The UltraSparc III rolls at year-end but MPF just last week , Sun presented UltraSparc V aka "Millenium". Doesn't it sound impressive? You gotta love Sun's marketing. They really do try. Anyhow, if you look at the numbers that Sun is estimating (gee, how hard can this estimating stuff be? Seems Intel is having an *awfully* tough time coming clean with Merced aka Inanium) 70 SpecInt95 and 120 SpecFp95 for US V, which is expected to tape 3Q 2000 (you can take that with a grain of salt). Compaq will be delivering those numbers by 3Q next year in 21264 and 21364. Back to the paragraph at the top: "perhaps the most robust processor ever built" That's a silly statement. So it has some fancy error correcting built in at the hardware level. The 21364 will support lockstepping. A *must* if you are supporting a fault-tolerant OS for the Tandem folks i.e. NSK. You really can't get more robust than that. Will it add to the server cost? Shertainly. Let the marketing types fight that one out. Point is, you can't get more robust than lockstepping. "it will be virtually impossible for the Alpha processor to maintain any current lead for much longer" We go from silly to absurd. Intel has yet to release performance numbers for Itanium/Merced. The pipeline length got a few grins going in various forums but as Intel claims: "initial implementation , blah blah" Okay, fine. Get around to shortening the pipeline and "boy we will really get good performance." So pipeline length and as the IBM fella points out "EPIC isn't high clock friendly" (paraphrasing). So how well does it perform? Compaq has shown/claimed: 21264 39 int 68 fp current numbers at 700 MHz (833 parts soon) 21264 will look much more powerful this time next year: Expect: .18 copper SOI part at 1.5 GHz, 1 GHz DDR-SRAM with several variations by Samsung. On-chip and off-chip L2. Low-end desktop to Workstation to Low-end server. 21364 on-chip network and memory switches, 70 int, 120 fp 3Q 2000. Much higher memory bandwidth, 1.5 MByte L2. High-end server. The part for I[nt]anium to fear greatly. 21364 aka Arana aka EV8. Just discussed at MPF. Tench mentions 100% greater integer than 21264. That must be 21264 at its peak as EV8 is projected to be 200 SpecInt95 , 300 SpecFp95. Now the question might be... What is that analyst talking about when he states: "it will be virtually impossible for the Alpha processor to maintain any current lead for much longer" He really doesn't know what he is talking about as the EV9 design team has been formed and EV10 is in the pipeline. If he even had a clue, he might be able to understand that Alpha should be a factor of 2 faster than Unatanium for at least 3 more years. That is saying something as today Alpha at 39 SpecInt95 is maybe 25-30% better in integer than X86 but by 21464 the gap should widen considerably (i.e. McKinley versus 21464). Not only "he doesn't know what he is talking about." He doesn't have any projected Intel numbers to compare it against and yet Alpha projected numbers are very much available, so how does he make a statement like that? Marketing. Okay. Rob