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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockJock-e who wrote (28896)	10/9/1999 11:34:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 99985

Stock, yesterday was the anniversary of last years bottom. Some random thoughts after looking at some sector charts and taking into consideration the big base in the McCllellan Oscillator that has broken positive, although you would want the oscillator to trend continously higher off a major bottom. XAL appears to have put in a major bottom. DRG appears to have made a double bottom similar to last year. BKX peaked into the baseline of last years bottom and turned up. CYC peaked into the inverted H&S baseline from last years bottom and bounced. Same for retail and leader WMT gapped across inverted H&S pattern and has made some big white candles. Add in the XAU to the rest of these beaten up sectors that have bottomed. The RSI at the 8/11 bottom was an extreme that was seen at major bottoms (or within a couple of months) over the last 10 years. All this stuff is showing up in Eric Stevens P&F stuff, so i'm interested in what his follow up also. The Vix is worrisome, but it stairstepped up the channel off the june low, so if this is a new leg up the low vix may not yet be low enough, put/call ratios are not yet to the euphoric levels that we have associated with tops this year. Some big caps techs are starting to look tired, and Larry Katz indicated rydex otc has 1.4 x money of rydex nova + ursa, the techs are overscribed and overbought and look vulnerable too me (go back to the bell market curve - conviction? -g-) bwdik