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To: Robert McHale who wrote (80108)10/8/1999 11:20:00 PM
From: Tom D  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164685
 
Whither interest rates...

<<take your profits if you got m>>

<<the main bullish argument, namely that Q3 earnings will be outstanding, doesn't take into account that a) interest rates are far more important to stock prices than earnings and b) that the market as a forward looking discounting mechanism must have these earnings priced in by now.>>

Is it obvious that interest rates are headed higher or even obvious that they will stay at the same level?

Not to me. Some economists expect substantial disinflation in the next few years, accompanied by additional gains in productivity, all caused by the scaleup of eCommerce.

I am expecting a correction related to Y2K paranoia, and am currently only 30% long, but beyond the millennium I expect to return to 100% long. I could not find fault with investors who prefer to just stay long the whole time. My anticipated correction may not happen.

Tom D