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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DanZ who wrote (4277)	10/9/1999 10:11:00 AM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10293

Dan Your a argumentive sort of guy. Your ask me What makes you think that Dr. Hensley doesn't know the status of the paper Dan, I thought the point of my post's is that Hensley probably does know the status. I infered that because you and Howard have toned down on the subject and are now beginning to refer to the importance of the new sudies being generated that your probably aware of the status (ie dead). Of course I could contact GUMM and see if I could get a answer from them, however I figured I'd give it a try getting it from you or Howard as you probably have some relationship with ir personal at GUMM. By the way you confuse my comment with studies being published in NEJM with GUMM's requirement to make disclosure of material issues pertaining to their business. If you recall the speculation by GUMM Bulls of a few months ago was the NEJM article would give GUMM a lot of free publicity, which in turn was going to create consumer awareness which in turn was going to cause consumers to seek out Zicam amongst the 100 or so other treatments on the shelves at their local pharmacy. Formal advertising, word of mouth, PR, news programs, publication, etc., will move it off the shelf. Do you really think that a product which has been clinically proven to reduce the duration of the common cold by 85% or prevents the common cold, won't fly off the shelf as well as Tylenol Cold which garnered more than $200 million in sales last year, or even Theraflu which had over $70 million in sales? Formal advertising, word of mouth, PR, news programs, publication, etc., will move it off the shelf. Do you really think that a product which has been clinically proven to reduce the duration of the common cold by 85% or prevents the common cold, won't fly off the shelf as well as Tylenol Cold which garnered more than $200 million in sales last year, or even Theraflu which had over $70 million in sales? Obviously this is dependent on the results of the second round of clinical studies, however. Dan what's going to make it fly this cold season....how many dollars of advertising? How many markets? When? What claimes? Whey the new studies? The old ones get rejected? If the old ones got rejected why continue to put out the prospect of the old study being published in the NEJM.......Then you close your arguement with the statement Obviously this is dependent on the results of the second round of clinical studies Dan, I've accused you of being a tout for GUMM.....I'm convinced of it now. I think you know more than you openly admit. I think you craft the facts in a fashion as to suit your means. Dan, you poised the following; One final question to Mad2: What do you think about the risk to reward of holding a short position in GUMM? 3 to 5 points of profit potential versus God knows how much loss potential if the studies are positive. This sounds like a really good trade, doesn't it? Do you GUMM short touts and shills understand the concept of risk to reward? I actually think the risk reward is looking excellent. The only thing I was worried about ewas the NEJM possible article. Without that GUMM has to create demand the same way J&J, P&G and the others do and frankly I don't think GUMM can do it better, faster and more efficient than a major consumer products company. If GUMM doesn't move Zicam off the shelf this season, the issues with returns, inventory etc....will get them. You can hypothicate all youu want about possibilities, but results are results. No NEJM atricle GUMM <5 by spring. Mad2