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To: Gary Burton who wrote (52732)	10/9/1999 2:26:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Thanks for the response, Gary. Your current thoughts on the ABC scenario are in sync with my post from several days ago (although I was very wrong in thinking that the bounce would begin Tuesday or Wednesday). For a correction this strong, I would wait for a bullish MACD divergence on the daily charts before thinking the correction is over, and to get there we would need a nice bounce for several days (maybe a week or two), followed by a gradual drop to retest the lows. (It's cool to see how momentum indicators like MACD seem to closely track E-wave.) This scenario wouldn't bother me, as a long term holder. What bothers me and leads me to at least consider an even more bearish possibility is the way some of the individual stock charts have broken down -- 200 day moving averages broken, 50 day moving averages turning down sharply, trendlines obliterated, and (as you point out) several stocks approaching their lows. In fact, some very key names, and bluechips in the sector, are perhaps one bad week away from those lows, We're not just talking FGI any more. We're talking OSX components such as HAL, RIG, GLBL. If I'm adding correctly, these issues retraced more than 70% of their gains (more than 80% for GLBL). That's beyond normal, if I understand normal to be the Fibonocci numbers you've previously posted. And this has happened in just 4 weeks! With crude still above $20 (as you point out)! Short of war breaking out in the Middle East, I agree there is no V bottom here. There are just too many people waiting to sell any blip of a rally. EDIT: One more thing that has bothered me is how some stocks have not even taken out the highs from last September -- e.g., FLC (I'm not sure of VTS, since I don't have the data).