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Technology Stocks : Exodus Communications, Inc. (EXDS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Herc who wrote (1371)	10/9/1999 7:00:00 PM
From: Rupert	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3664

If we want to talk about flawed business models let's focus on Barrons....a weekly magazine is increasingly an irrelevance now that we can access news instantly using the Internet (and, I must say, obtain the full text to virtually any copyrighted articles on subscription only websites by finding them on message boards such as this). If you had been blindsided by the Internet, you'd probably also be writing scurrilous, downright nasty articles about its leading companies too to try and attract attention and keep subscriber interest. Herc - what sort of buy point are you looking at for Monday? See where we go in the first two hours or sit'n'wait and see if the legitimate financial press mentions that article. Wonder how soon before friendly EXDS analysts reiterate, especially in view of some their very positive recent reports. This reminds me a bit of the very negative article that Briefing.com came up with last year about Verisign VRSN. It freaked me out and I sold my stock. They were wrong. I missed out on $120 points per share. PS. My company just added the INVESCO Dynamics fund (FIDYX) to its 401K. Couldn't help noticing that EXDS is its 4th largest holding as of Aug 99: invesco.com

To: Herc who wrote (1371)	10/10/1999 12:57:00 AM
From: GHowe	Respond to of 3664

Herc, There are a lot of dark fibers around today, and Ellen does state that the price of capacity is declining in the article. Both are true statements, however what is not stated is that while the cost of capacity on a PER UNIT basis is declining, capacity on the network is proving to be tremendously price elastic. This means that while the price of capacity is declining, use is increasing at a greater amount leading the end user to pay more on a monthly basis than if prices were high. It was (is) true for the consumer, and it is true for the commercial user (like Exodus) as well. Just because there is dark fiber out there, we also cannot forget the provisioning issues surrounding higher demand for greater capacity: recall Ellen's statement on the Q299 conference call about the difficulty the company has in getting OC-48 line cards, which merely scratches the surface. With ever-more dynamic Web sites and broadband content coming on line soon (just look towards the deployment of broadband access, IPv.6 etc.) this trend will not go away. OC-48 may be difficult now, but higher capacity provisioning will prove even more difficult. Facilities-based companies will prioritize its own needs ahead of others, a mere fact of economic survival. As an aside, wireless broadband has many, many more reliability issues ahead of it before we can realistically compare it to wireline access. Many providers have attempted this architecture for their local loops as a beta for mass deployment, none have truly succeeded on a broadcast basis economically. As for wireless long haul, it just isn't there.