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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trumptown who wrote (13302)	10/10/1999 6:20:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Thanks much for the very kind words, Sting. You are correct about market similarities. . .and I do expect some chasing to occur in both Oct and Nov . . .with the market tops hit by mid-Oct, then again in the first week of Dec, as I detailed at length in my last post. I don't think Greedspam will pose any problem this year, but China could spoil the whole party on a devaluation. . . and that could be the one wrench-in-the-works that throws the markets off their historical retracement. This fall, I am not expecting the same volatility as last year. . .but I rather expect the biggest gains to be in the bigger stocks. If you recall, last year the big news was stocks like BAMM from 2.75 to 40 and SIEB from 11 to 70 and MARG, MALL, ONSL, which were all speculative plays that started their big moves from well under 20 bucks. On the contrary, I don't think the winners in the speculation category will come from the smaller caps this time, but from those already pretty big. . . like EBAY, ETYS, HLTH, PTVL, LQID, ATHM, HLIT, ADAP, CNXT, HRBC, NPNT, COVD, UBID. . . all of which are well OVER $20 bucks at this point. I guess that is a commentary of sorts about daytraders and individual online traders [position and swing] . .oh, yes. . .and even the fund managers, most of which became fund managers, while Bill Clinton was president. . . . it says something about maturity and it also describes the level of risk traders are willing to take these days. . . In other words, caution was thrown to the wind last November, where E-commerce stocks were concerned. . .but I believe that speculators are far more selective about the stocks they will be playing this year. . . and don't forget all that experience they now have. . . at the same time, I believe that fund managers are taking bigger risks and getting into some of these future high-fliers early. This should disappoint some short-sellers that are looking for speculative runs from the financially challenged wannabe stocks. . .[the likes of KTEL, CUST, MPPP], that ran on the coattails of a pipe dream. . . or in those cases. . .of a misunderstanding of what investors were buying. I think short sellers will be better served by tracking over hyped IPOs and calling tops this year. . . .In fact, I am quite bearish on IPOs lately [could you tell?]. . .there is only so much money that suckers are willing to lose. And they have been burned so many times, with seemingly good companies. . .that when the scammy ones start showing up in larger numbers, there will be some bigger falls than rises. . . . like opening at 20. . peaking at 29. . . and closing at 14. A few of those and the steam will leave the IPO market, in my opinion. But then this is the magical autumn, when it seems everyone and their brother jumps into the markets. . . in search of that quick buck. . . so there is no telling. . . these are my feelings, based on historicals, money flow, general observation and intuition [which I trust explicitly]. Now, I do believe that certain IPOs will be a smash success. . .you know I am anxiously awaiting Plug Power. . . and there are others. . .but in my opinion, the band wagon is pretty full. . . and the scammy companies that try to jump on, will be sorely disappointed. . . .but then that is relevant, isn't it? A company makes 200 million on its first day, instead of a billion. . . who's complaining. . . the champaign still flows. . .its just Moet instead of Dom. . . that's all. And what about these executive secretarys and other clerical personnel that live and work in Silicon Valley? LOL!! They work for an internet start-up company for a year or two, take stock options. . load their boats with stock. . .wait until the company does its IPO. . .then celebrate like wild with the company, when the IPO is a success. . . .work another month or two, then hand in a resignation and cash in all the stock for one HANDSOME sum of money. . . . Get this. . .then they take a job with another promising internet start-up and do the same thing. . . .Repeating the process every few years is making multi-millionaires out of clerical workers. LOL!!! God Bless 'em. Rande Is