ROBERTSON STEPHENS The Internet Stock Team ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe: internetstocks.com If you do not have access to a browser, please reply to mailto:internetstocks@rsco.com with the message "unsubscribe" in the subject box. Mailing List Changes: internetstocks.com ----------------------------------------------------------------- October 8, 1999
The Web Report - Volume 2, Issue #40
Internetstocks.com Overview - Keith E. Benjamin - mailto:keith@rsco.com
This week, the NETDEX index increased 10% to 620.37 compared with the NASDAQ, which experienced a 4% increase.
While the NETDEX is up approximately 52% from its August lows, it is still down about 22.6% from its all-time high of 801.41 on April 13. If we look at percentage changes from low to high in previous quarters (particularly last year's fourth quarter), the NETDEX was up 67.5% in Q3:98, up 202.4% in Q4:98, up 66.0% in Q1:99, up 69.6% in Q2:99 and up 47.1% in Q3:99.
REPORTING SEASON STARTS WITH A BIG BOOST FROM YAHOO! - Yahoo!'s numbers were as impressive as ever, demonstrating the strength of the advertising market, which has become harder as its absolute size gets larger. Yahoo! was also upbeat about prospects for the fourth quarter, which we expect will be helped by commerce. While we can consider Yahoo! in a class by itself, we see many other companies positioned to report strong quarters. We would encourage investors to continue broadening exposure to the stock group. While the stocks have started to recover, most are still more than 35% below highs. We expect online shopping to garner more attention this holiday season and are launching The Online Shopping Challenge, described below, to get a closer view of the activity.
Among the larger stocks, we continue to favor AOL, Amazon, Excite@Home, and Priceline.com. Among the less than large capitalization stocks, we see TicketMaster-CitySearch as a stand out stock that has not moved much yet, but with strong prospects for the quarter. Other favored stocks in this segment include CMGI, Fatbrain, InfoSpace, Mapquest, NetPerceptions, Network Solutions, Student Advantage, and XOOM.
EDITORIAL NOTE - I announced this week that I have decided to leave Robertson Stephens to join Highland Capital Partners as a general partner. Highland is a leading venture capital firm with a focus on the Internet. I view this as more of a personal transition than a departure. I still plan to be a contributing editor for the weekly e-mail. In addition, Robertson Stephens and Highland plan to explore a strategic marketing relationship to further develop Internetstocks.com. After 16 years as a sell-side analyst, I expected I would seek a transition away from the service side and closer to the investment side of the business. With venture, I hope to focus on finding and helping create a few big winners over time, with less day-to-day market stress. I am pleased to have been associated with a great team to continue following the Internet stocks on a day-to-day basis. Lauren Cooks Levitan has already established the leading eTailing franchise. Eric Upin is perfectly positioned to ride the huge business-to-business commerce wave. Mike Graham and Lowell Singer have already been doing all the work with the consumer content and advertising stocks. Lauren, Eric, Mike, and Lowell represent just 4 of Robertson Stephens' 16 senior Internet research analysts, who provide the deepest and broadest senior research analyst coverage on the different Internet sectors, including eFinance, eServices, eCommerce Services, eTailing, eNetworking Software, eMarketing, eBusiness, eBusiness infrastructure, B2B eCommerce, and ePayments.
eTail Update - Lauren Cooks Levitan - mailto:lauren@rsco.com
This week the eTailDEX continued its recovery, gaining 11.4% to 1368.67 versus 1228.88 last week (following an 11.35 gain in the prior week). The eTailDEX is currently up 68.5% from the recent low of 812.5 on August 4 but still now stands 24.3% below recent highs. For comparison, the more broad-based NetDEX is 34.1% above recent lows and only 22.6% below its 52-week high. Leadership in the eTail group continues to be driven by the large cap, franchise players (with Amazon up 26.3%, etoys up 25.9% and Priceline up 27.4% over the last two weeks). Throughout the earnings reporting season and as we get closer to the holiday shopping season, we suspect the smaller cap stocks could begin to catch up with the leading names. We continue to focus on Alloy Online, beyond.com and Global Sports in the smaller capitalization space as stocks with room for significant appreciation.
JOIN OUR ONLINE SHOPPING CHALLENGE - You could win a $10,000 online shopping spree! We have frequently used this space to lament the fact that we have limited tools to assess the quality of online shopping experiences (short of doing a lot of our own online shopping). While we believe personal experiences are a decent means of determining an eTailer's standards and capabilities in service, convenience, reliability, and price, they provide a limited snapshot at best. We place a great deal of importance on the execution capabilities of individual eTailers and expect Q4 will bring a wide range of outcomes with some players much better able to handle the seasonal demands than others. Rather than wait to learn about which sites are faring better than others, we have decided to do something about the data vacuum that exists. We are launching The Online Shopping Challenge, powered by BizRate.
The Online Shopping Challenge is our attempt to aggregate sufficient anecdotal data on eTailers to help us make more informed investment decisions. The event, which begins next week and runs through December 25, invites online shoppers to visit www.internetstocks.com and complete a survey after they have completed an online shopping experience with any eTailer. As an incentive to increase participation, each survey respondent will be entered to win (or donate) a $10,000 online shopping spree. In addition, we will make a $10,000 donation to Adopt-A-Family. We will analyze the results and report on them in this space on a regular basis throughout the holiday season. If you're planning to shop online this holiday season, we would love for you to take a few minutes to fill out a survey following each shopping experience. And tell your friends - the more data we get the more useful it should prove to be for all of us! Bizrate.com, an independent third party research company, continuously surveys millions of online buyers and is the only company trusted by more than 1,700 online merchants to continuously collect direct customer feedback and transactional information at the point-of-purchase. We are very excited to have BizRate powering this event for us. "Happ eShopping!"
THE NEXT WAVE OF ETAILING - Our firm held its annual Consumer Conference in New York this week. Not surprisingly, eTailers commanded a disproportionate presence relative to the young channel's dollar impact on the nearly $3 trillion retail market. A wide range of eTailers, both public and private, made presentations. We came away from the event with the impression that business trends across the sector remained robust during Q3 setting up a positive earnings season. That positive momentum also has most eTailers ramping up their advertising and back-end capabilities in an effort to capitalize on what is expected to be a dramatic increase in consumer demand for online shopping over the coming weeks.
We are very encouraged by the most recent wave of eTailers, many of whom have increasingly attractive business models. This week's presentations showed that we are rapidly moving beyond the initial eTailer superstore format, which often brought multiple players selling commodities, stiff price competition and low gross margins. While many of the next wave of eTailers are addressing seemingly smaller markets, we believe several also have greater potential to achieve higher gross margins. We believe this is critical since we continue to believe using gross margin dollars is a more appropriate means of valuing eTailers before they reach profitability.
Themes of the "Next Wave" that we were encouraged by include consumable businesses (pets.com, more.com), high margin product categories (internetdiamonds.com, Miadora.com) and value-added retailers (BravoGifts.com) that can justify their acquisition costs; whole new buying formats exclusively achievable online (Mercata); categories with limited distribution where access to key suppliers can differentiate a competitor (800.com); interesting strategic alliances bridging the online and offline worlds (Della & James, Wine.com); creative use of technology and integration with media to drive sales (gloss.com and boo.com); companies enabling and accelerating the adoption of online commerce (BizRate); and land-based brands intelligently addressing the online opportunity (Dean & Deluca).
PREVIEW TRAVEL MERGER WITH TRAVELOCITY ESTABLISHES TRAVEL LEADER - We believe this week's announced merger between Preview Travel and Travelocity.com (a division of SABRE Holdings) highlights the importance of having a balanced combination of superior reach, content, technology, and management to succeed online. While we have been skeptical of some eTailing mergers, often viewing them as acts of competitive desperation, we believe this proposed merger, in a category we have long believed held great opportunity, establishes both the scale and the complementary skill set required to win the category.
Preview Travel had historically been successful at driving traffic, which in turn drove an increasingly attractive base of advertising revenues. Yet, it had been less able to demonstrate rapid acceleration in revenues from selling airline tickets and other travel offerings (we estimate a "look to book" ratio for most travel eTailers of less than 10%). So how will the combined company address this situation? First, size clearly does matter, in our view. In the month of July, we estimate the new combined company's unduplicated reach as measured by MediaMetrix would have been 7.9%, which would have made it the third highest ranking shopping site behind Amazon and eBay. We believe this impressive Web presence should allow the new company to more effectively utilize Preview's superior travel content for driving ad sales. On the transaction revenue side, while Preview and Travelocity have similar sized registered user bases (9MM and 8.7MM, respectively), Travelocity generated approximately twice as many gross bookings so far in 1999. We believe Travelocity's ability to convert shoppers to buyers at a greater rate is driven by a more convenient shopping interface and superior technology facilitated through its connection to SABRE's reservation system. We look forward to higher conversion rates across the company's combined user base. We also expect the new company could be better positioned to negotiate more favorable supplier relationships with the airlines, given their formidable industry presence (combined they are one of the top 10 travel agencies in the country), which should drive profitability improvements. Given our belief that this highly complementary skill set positions the new travelocity.com as the definitive leader in the online travel market, we upgraded our rating on Preview Travel's shares to Buy. ALLOY ONLINE'S GEN Y CONNECTION ATTRACTS RETAILER PARTNERS - This week Alloy Online announced the formation of an innovative seasonal commerce partnership program for preferred merchants. In exchange for a monthly fee, Alloy will host customized stores for its merchant partners on its site. Initial launch partners include some of the most recognizable and relevant brands among teens such as Pacific Sunwear, Nike, Eastpak, Fossil, Guess, and mymusicfactory.com. We believe this announcement validates our thesis that Alloy, given its growing and deep relationships with teens, is uniquely positioned to partner with other retailers, manufacturers, and marketers interested in reaching the Gen Y customer segment. Further, we believe the quality of brands choosing to launch with this initiative and open stores on Alloy's site provides evidence that Alloy is evolving into the leading Gen Y portal. While we do not expect Alloy to generate significant revenues from this program, given it is in an early stage of development, going forward we believe these kinds of agreements could represent an enormous opportunity for incremental revenue. As participating merchants, many of whom have ignored and/or struggled to tap the Gen Y market, realize Alloy's strong relationship with Gen Y users provides an ideal connection into this consumer segment, we envision Alloy expanding this initiative.
GLOBAL SPORTS - TEAMING UP WITH YAHOO! - Global Sports announced this week that it will be the exclusive eTailer of the Sports and Recreation section for Yahoo!'s Shopping service. The far-reaching agreement is for 15 months, gives Global Sports' eTail partners exclusive rights to the anchor tenancies and merchandise slots available within the Sports and Recreation space, and makes Global's partners the exclusive sporting goods affiliates to Geocities. Additionally, every single page of Yahoo! sports content will provide text links to Global's retail partners through the Sports and Recreation area, and the partner sites will be prominently promoted in numerous sports-related areas of the Yahoo! network. We believe Yahoo!'s deep partnership with Global Sports is yet another important endorsement of Global Sports' unique business model, coming on the heels of Global's announced agreement to provide sporting goods eTailing with WebMD, through thesportsauthority.com, last week. We expect the traffic that could be driven to Global Sports' various retail partner sites by the broad exposure offered through Yahoo! enhances its opportunity to establish leadership within the online sporting goods market, and we anxiously await the launch of the company's partner sites later this month.
WAL-MART DELAYS REVAMPED SITE LAUNCH - Wal-Mart announced that its much-anticipated site relaunch will not take place in time for the 1999 holiday season. While the company indicated it would expand its current online product offerings before the holidays, a more complete line, which should eventually include more than 600,000 SKUs, and the much hyped and promised improved site, will not be available until next year. Many in the media and the investment community have assumed that Wal-Mart's dominant land-based presence, strong ties with manufacturers, and massive customer base would translate quickly into rapid success online once the company relaunched its site, creating a dismal scenario for eTailers. We have never embraced this theory given our thesis that having store customers does not automatically mean customers will extend their relationship with you online. In the physical world, location is critical; in the online retailing world, data is critical. And while Wal-Mart reportedly has 90-100 million retail customers per week, it knows how to reach very few of those people online. By not stepping up its efforts more quickly, Wal-Mart is, in effect, creating more opportunities for other eTailers to build a customer base, and with it, the data critical to interacting with customers going forward. While we appreciate its desire not to rush their site relaunch (especially given the high expectations that have been set), we believe this delay clearly makes the comparison of Amazon and Wal-Mart even less relevant than it has been to date. We continue to expect that Wal-Mart will have a solid incremental business on line; we just don't believe it will have to be at the expense of Amazon, which we project could have at least 13 million customers by the end of 1999.
eNetwork Update - Michael Graham - mailto:michael@rsco.com
YAHOO! SETS THE STOCK STANDARD - Yahoo! reported 3Q:99 revenues up 20.6% sequentially to $155.1 million, above our estimate of $135.0 million, and EPS of $0.14, above our estimate of $0.09 per share. Traffic increased 24% to an average of more than 385 million page views per day in September compared to an average of 310 million in June. Yahoo! now has more than 80 million unique registered users, up 23% from 65 million at the end of June. Looking toward next year, we expect we will continue to see increasing advertising rates, which could even be closer to double digits than single digits on a percentage basis. For the next quarter, we remain highly confident about Yahoo's rapid growth rate. We believe the company may finally have fixed its commerce strategy, enabling it to capture more holiday shopping dollars at its new shopping mall. We believe Yahoo!'s commerce efforts may allow it to finally catch up with AOL's existing mall and Amazon's emerging mall with zShops. On the international front, we believe the numbers are adding up quickly as there are now 21 world properties in Yahoo's global network with more than 105 million unique users as of September. In our view, Yahoo! is positioned to capture a disproportionate share of the Web's upside with less controversy than almost any other stock in the group.
GEMSTAR ACQUIRES TV GUIDE - Gemstar announced plans to buy TV Guide (TVGIA-$47). Although we believe the acquisition came as a surprise to a number of investors, we like the deal. We believe the combination takes much of the execution risk out of the Gemstar's stock while forgoing only a marginal bit of short-term upside. We believe the merger should lead to quicker penetration of the Gemstar's EPG across all platforms, as the deal aligns Gemstar's strength in the consumer electronics market with TV Guide's strength in the cable set-top market. As Gemstar's EPG gains critical mass, we believe the future advertising revenue stream will accelerate substantially, with the combined entity leveraging TV Guide's large sales force and well known brand. Also this week, Gemstar was awarded a penalty of $26 million to $35 million in a partial arbitration ruling against General Instrument for past unpaid licensing fees. In the future, we expect Gemstar will receive ongoing fees related to additional GIC set top box sales. This award relates to GIC's illegal use of Gemstar's EPG in analog boxes. The second phase of arbitration will focus on digital boxes and is expected to begin in the next three months. We believe this week's news removes two of the largest concerns from Gemstar's stock and helps to clear the path for open-ended growth. We believe Gemstar's EPG business can rapidly grow to an installed base of 30 million households within a couple years. We believe this would be worth approximately $50 billion in market capitalization, providing upside to Gemstar stock.
AOL LAUNCHES ITS NEW 5.0 VERSION - AOL formally launched its new 5.0 version with enhanced features such as "You've Got Pictures," "My Calendar", and AOL Plus, which detects the user's bandwidth and capability for multimedia content, adjusting the user experience accordingly. We believe the rollout of AOL 5.0 and related promotional events could help the stock from a perception standpoint, as did AOL 4.0. In our view, AOL is focused on making the "connected experience" even more central in users lives. In doing so, we believe users will spend more time online and view more pages, which translates into increased revenues. We understand that there are currently more than two million downloads of AOL 5.0 with limited promotion. We believe this can help counter concerns of price-based competition.
eSOURCERS INFOSPACE & MAPQUEST WORK TOGETHER - MapQuest and InfoSpace announced a strategic alliance whereby MapQuest will become the exclusive provider of mapping and driving directions throughout the InfoSpace network, which now reaches more than 86% of the Web. We believe the agreement bodes well for both sides as it significantly extends MapQuest's reach and expands the breadth of quality products offered by InfoSpace. On a separate note, we believe the increased traffic numbers that we have witnessed from both Media Metrix and Yahoo! serve as a positive for eSourcers, which benefit from increased page views and strong volumes. These data points continue to strengthen our belief that both companies are poised to deliver exceptional Q3 results with upside to our estimates.
ASK JEEVES KEEPS SERVING INVESTORS - One of the less noticed stocks recently is AskJeeves, which in our opinion, is the first intuitive answering network on the Web. The company continues to add new corporate customer accounts, this week announcing IDG Books Worldwide. Other customers include Compaq, Dell, E*TRADE, Iomega, Micron Electronics, Oxygen.com and Toshiba Corporation. Additionally this week, Ask Jeeves announced a strategic partnership with Evergreen Project, Inc. which responds to the demand for interactive learning programs, by bringing innovative Web-based educational programming to the classroom. We believe there could be modest upside to our Q3 estimates based on the pace of new account additions, and believe an exceptional quarter could be a catalyst for the stock. We believe investors have yet to fully grasp the large B2B opportunity of outsourcing customer service and search functions that AskJeeves fulfills.
eMarketing Update - Lowell J. Singer - mailto:lowell@rsco.com
eMARKETING INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES: In our view, Yahoo's earnings announcement set a very positive tone for the Internet group in general and for the eMarketing stocks specifically. When DoubleClick announces earnings on October 14, we expect upside to our revenue estimates driven by both DART and network sales. We believe that the stock can continue to move higher, particularly if the company announces the addition of any significant new customers.
XOOM - We believe that Xoom.com and Net Perceptions also present attractive investment opportunities heading into earnings season. We believe that investors have only recently begun to refocus on Xoom after staying on the sidelines for several months. We expect that Xoom.com will deliver upside to our Q3 revenue estimates driven by strong membership growth. We expect the stock to react favorably to the earnings announcement and to the closing of the Xoom/Snap/NBC Internet merger that could happen by the end of October.
NETPERCEPTIONS - We expect that Net Perceptions' stock could get a boost from both a solid quarter and the company's recent new product announcements. Following last week's introduction of Net Perceptions for Marketing Campaigns, the company this week introduced Net Perceptions for Knowledge Management. This product will allow companies to incorporate personalization software on corporate Intranet sites to better connect employees with a company's vast intellectual and written resources. We expect that the product's attractiveness to Fortune 1000 companies could help expand Net Perceptions' existing customer base and drive upside to our long-term revenue estimates.
eBusiness Update - Eric Upin - mailto:eric@rsco.com
Last week we formerly launched the Business-to-Business (B2B) eCommerce coverage area. We believe that B2B companies represent the next major stage of Internet growth and stock appreciation-substantially eclipsing Business-to-Consumer (B2C) commerce volumes by several orders of magnitude. The combined market cap of the B2C space totals approximately $500 billion. Our three Buy-rated names in the space are Chemdex (CMDX), Internet Capital Group (ICGE), and VerticalNet (VERT).
Chemdex: Although it is still very early, we believe the Chemdex model could prove to be one of the more effective approaches for quickly building critical mass. Chemdex aggregates suppliers from traditional distribution channels-moving them online to a single place in a standard catalog format. In the life sciences market, Chemdex has grown its network to more than 150 suppliers and nearly a million products. With this offering, the company is quickly ramping its customer base and transaction revenues.
Internet Capital Group: We consider ICG to be a core B2B holding as the company represents a diversified play on both commerce and infrastructure. ICG has funded a broad portfolio of B2B companies, but distinguishes its model from traditional venture capitalists given its long-term investment strategy and role as an incubator. ICG is committed to developing each of its partner companies into the leading player in its respective market. As the hub of an interconnected partner network, ICG provides valuable resources in the areas of recruiting, partnering, marketing, and operations. Moreover, ICG is building its infrastructure capabilities in order to provide its companies with a strong technology platform-resulting in accelerated growth and competitive advantage in a world where time-to-market is critical.
VerticalNet: We believe VerticalNet also represents a diversified play on B2B eCommerce given the company's portfolio of 47 vertical sites. While the company's media model has generated sizable advertising revenues from its targeted markets, we believe VerticalNet's early lead in building content and communities, more importantly, will drive commerce-resulting in a sustainable, transaction-based revenue model moving forward. In our opinion, VerticalNet is laying the foundation to become a long-term winner in the space.
eBrokers - Weekly Stock Volume Report - Scott Appleby - mailto:scott@rsco.com
Volumes Update - Volumes are continuing to show signs of recovery from the summer slowdown. Average daily volume for the NetDex increased 7% this September 29-October 5 week to 184.4 million shares traded from last week's average of 173.0 million. Total volume for the week came in at 922.1 million, up from 864.8 million shares the previous week. The TechDex remained relatively steady compared to last week's quarterly high, with total trading volume of 1.64 billion shares.
These increased volumes are a good sign for our eBrokers, and this is beginning to be reflected in their stock prices. The eBrokerDex was up this week to 114 from last week's Index of 111. While we are still far from the beginning of the quarter's Index of 182, we believe, as trading volumes in high-tech securities continue to rise, so will the eBrokerDex.
Another metric that we will begin tracking in our weekly reports is AutEx volume numbers, which measures the advertised trade volume of the leading market makers. This week, Knight/Trimark's advertised trade volume was 845 million shares, down 2% from last week's volume of 861 million shares. For the third quarter, NITE's Nasdaq trade volume was 11.88 billion, 16,5% lower than the second quarter. This decline was expected, given the overall slowdown in trading volume in the third quarter. While NITE's Nasdaq volumes have declined this quarter, the company still maintains the top ranked position of all market makers in the Nasdaq market.
Knight/Trimark Update - The seasonal lull in volume and volatility that occurred over this past quarter have affected NITE worse than we had expected. We therefore lowered our revenue and earnings estimates for the company for 1999 and 2000. Revenue estimates were lowered from $178 million to $142 million for the third quarter, and from $219 million to $171 million for 4Q99. FY00E revenues were also lowered from $1.0 billion to $859 million. Although NITE has been hurt by dull market conditions, we still believe in the long-term fundamentals of the company that make NITE the leading market maker.
EBrokers Update - This week, American Express announced plans to build an online brokerage service complete with financial advisory and cash management services. The company plans to offer low trading fees ($14.95/trade), which will be waived for accounts over $100,000. Customers with at least $25,000 in their accounts will receive free buy orders. American Express believes they can offer minimal trading fees because the company plans to make money by utilizing its 9,300 advisors to offer customers fee-based financial advice. The new service is planned to launch later this fall. American Express plans to focus its efforts only at cross selling its existing card member base and does not intend to fight the marketing wars with the eBrokerage veterans. The company launched an online product in 1996 only to lose an estimated $40 million, gaining less than 10,000 accounts. Therefore, we do not see it as a present threat to any incumbents.
ETRADE UPDATE - E*Trade also announced significant developments this week. The company announced the launch of its Japanese financial services Web site, E*Trade Japan. This site will offer trading of Japanese securities and mutual funds as well as comprehensive company reports to E*Trade Japan customers. The new web site already has an established customer base through the acquisition of Osawa securities, a Japanese brokerage firm. The launch of E*Trade Japan represents a significant opportunity for E*Trade as Japan's Internet market is the second largest in the world with more than 18 million users, according to Nikkei NetBusiness. With the launch of the sixth E*Trade branded site launched outside of the U.S., E*Trade is securing its position as a global leader in online brokerage.
INTUIT UPDATE - Intuit announced a proposal to acquire Rock Financial, a leading provider of online mortgages for $370 million in stock. In order to better satisfy its customers, Intuit plans to move from a referral-based model to a direct model, allowing customers to close loans through their site. This move should impact revenues favorably by increasing revenue per closed loan and providing greater loan volume to the company's financial institution partners. With the acquisition of Rock Financial, Intuit will develop an end-to-end mortgage service where customers can search for a loan, fill out an online application, and work with experienced loan representatives. Intuit plans to issue 12 million shares of stock in order to acquire Rock and its sister company, Title Source, Inc. This will have a dilutive effect of approximately $0.03 per share for the year. However, the company believes efficiencies in its other businesses will compensate for the additional expenses in the third and fourth quarters of FY00. We view the acquisition of Rock as another positive step for Intuit to more aggressively pursue its Internet strategy. We expect other strategic acquisitions will follow in the company's quest to become a leading Super Financial Portal.
Intuit also recently announced further enhancements to its Quicken.com Web site. Through an alliance with ClickTheButton.com, Intuit will launch its new shopping service, providing customers with ClickTheBotton's free price comparison software under the brand name Quicken Shopper. Intuit also announced an alliance with WebEx, a provider of virtual office services, to offer Quicken.com users the ability to conduct Web-based conferences. Individuals and small businesses can use this service to hold real-time meetings in which participants can view documents and presentations, run software, and use the Web at their desks. We believe these new services will further Quicken.com's position as a leadi |