dawn.com
My notes: A good analysis coming from a Pakistani gentleman
Lessons from Indian elections
The BJP-led alliance has returned to power primarily because of its secular agenda and Mr Vajpayee's moderate image.
My notes:Congress was not fortunate enough to have an Italian Stallion as the president, but had to settle down for a mare. - Too bad
By Afzal Mahmood
AFTER winning a comfortable majority in the 13th Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised to form the next coalition government
at the centre. Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee will be the first incumbent prime minister in
India since 1971 to be sworn in as head of the government for the second time in
succession.
A sweeping victory in Bihar for the BJP-JD(U) alliance has enabled the NDA to cross
the psychologically important 300-seat barrier. Mr Vajpayee should also feel satisfied
that the BJP itself has not lagged behind the 182-seat tally it had in the last Lok Sabha.
For the third time consecutively the BJP has emerged as the dominant political party in
the country, leaving the Congress(I) far behind with a tally of only 112 seats.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may feel a little disappointed that it
has failed to secure a more substantial majority in the Lok Sabha. This has led to fears
being expressed by many political pundits in India that the 13th Lok Sabha may also
not complete its full term of five years and instability may continue to haunt the Indian
polity. But, ironically, the BJP-led alliance would have been in more serious difficulties
if it had won a large parliamentary majority.
Despite all the harping on the common agenda of the NDA and the declarations that
the contentious issues have been shelved, there is not the slightest doubt in the minds of
the analysts that if the NDA had won a bigger majority, going well beyond 300, all the
issues of the Sangh Pariwar's Hindutva agenda (Ram Mandir, Article 370 and a
common civil code) would have come to the fore. Even if Mr Vajpayee had resisted,
the hardliners in the party and the other outfits of the Pariwar would have insisted on
implementing the Hindu agenda, leading to dissensions in the alliance and communal
tensions in the country.
In the context of South Asia, as the history of independent India and Pakistan shows,
whenever a party has formed a government with a large majority it has invariably
disappointed the electorate by neglecting governance and turning autocratic. In 1972,
after India's successful military intervention in East Pakistan, Indira Gandhi won 352
seats, an overwhelming majority, but had to opt for emergency after four years. In
1984, because of a sympathy wave after Indira Gandhi's assassination, Rajiv Gandhi
won 415 seats, the best parliamentary position ever, but within a few years he got
embroiled in the Bofors scandal and lost the next election.
A big mandate, as we have also seen in Pakistan in the case of Mian Nawaz Sharif,
carries with it many pitfalls. A sweeping electoral victory, in the peculiar social and
political conditions of India and Pakistan, not only breeds a sense of complacency in
the rulers but also arrogance and a feeling of invincibility which are fatal for good
governance. Also, it is ironical that in South Asia the rulers who win huge mandates
lose their nerves at the slightest sign of dissent and adopt draconian and repressive
measures to crush opposition. For instance, after winning landslide victories in
elections, Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi were unnecessarily rattled by Jai Prakash
Narain's movement in one case and V.P. Singh's revolt in the other and took measures
which eventually led to their downfall.
The South Asian experience shows that a small majority keeps a government on the
tenterhooks, forcing it to give due attention to good governance and avoid divisive
issues. With its small majority in the newly elected Lok Sabha, the BJP-led alliance will
not be under pressure from the Sangh Pariwar to implement its Hindutva agenda. The
other possibility is that the hardliners of the Sangh Parivar may advise their supporters
to lie low for the time being and retain their mask of moderation so that the electorate
may be hoodwinked in the next election to return the saffron camp with an absolute
majority.
One inescapable lesson that the Sangh Pariwar should learn from the present election
results is that the Indian electorate has moved away from the religious divide that Mr
L.K. Advani and other hardliners sought to impose on the polity. Good governance
and fulfilment of promises have been the main motivating factors for the voters in their
choice of parties and candidates for support. The one message that the Indian voter
has given to the rulers is that they should focus solely on good governance rather than
on manipulating caste, communal and other sectarian factors to win or retain political
power.
The BJP and its allies' debacle in Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Punjab and the
Congress humiliation in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Orissa and Rajasthan provide
lessons for the ruling parties which squander their goodwill and support through
infighting and bad governance. On the other hand, Mr Chandrababu Naidu has shown
by his astonishing success both in Lok Sabha and Andhra Pradesh state assembly
elections that incumbency can indeed be an asset and an opportunity if the rulers lay
more emphasis on people's welfare and good governance rather than on
self-projection and aggrandizement.
The dynastic factor which Sonia Gandhi tried to reintroduce in the Indian politics
seems to have backfired. While she herself has been elected with big margins from two
constituencies, she failed to revive the fortunes of the Congress on a national scale.
The Congress had 141 seats in the last Lok Sabha but its tally has been reduced to
112 seats in the latest elections - a loss of 29 seats. This has happened despite the fact
that Sonia Gandhi conducted the electoral campaign vigorously and went to every
nook and corner of the country to support her party candidates.
It is interesting to note that the Congress has done better in some state assembly
elections, held simultaneously with those of the Lok Sabha. For instance, the Congress
performance was better in state assembly elections in Maharashtra, Karnataka and
Andhra Pradesh than in the Lok Sabha polls in these states. The message that the
voters have sent to the Congress is that they have preferred the party where Mrs
Sonia Gandhi was not directly a claimant for power. The inescapable conclusion is that
the controversy regarding Mrs Sonia Gandhi's foreign origins did after all play a part in
influencing the voter's choice.
Mrs Sonia Gandhi was elected as party president in the hope that under her leadership
the Congress would emerge as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha elections. If
Mr Sitaram Kesri was removed from Congress presidentship for winning only 141
seats, will there be a move to replace Sonia Gandhi who has brought the tally down to
112 seats this time? Keeping in view the Congress culture, which has always hitched
itself to the dynastic charisma of the Nehru family, a revolt against Sonia Gandhi
appears to be a remote possibility. The only real threat to her authority may, however,
come from the former prime minister, P.V. Narasimha Rao, if he agrees to lead a
campaign for a change in party leadership.
Though the NDA has more constituents than the previous alliance, none of them is
likely to show the kind of impatience and unilateralism that the AIADMK of Jayalalitha
did the last time in toppling Mr Vajpayee's coalition government. Mr Chandrababu
Naidu, who has replaced Ms Jayalalitha as the new prima donna in the NDA alliance
with his 29 Lok Sabha seats, is known for his political maturity and patience. He has
already assured his support to NDA. The second most important constituent, the
DMK of Tamil Naidu, has also vowed to be a responsible and cooperative coalition
partner. Another factor which will help the coalition to have a reasonably secure tenure
is the mood of the electorate which has become fed up with frequent elections - three
polls in as many years. The Indian voters will not look kindly on any spoiler who seeks
to break the next coalition for whimsical reasons and pave the way for a mid-term poll.
The most important factor which will help Vajpayee stay in power for a much longer
period this time is that the Congress is in a much weaker position in the new Lok
Sabha than it was in the last one. Even last May Mrs Sonia Gandhi could succeed in
bringing down the government by only one vote but failed to muster sufficient strength
to form an alternative government and the result was a new poll. This time the NDA
commands a slightly bigger majority than the previous alliance.
The BJP-led alliance has returned to power primarily because of its secular agenda
and Mr Vajpayee's moderate image. It would seem likely to remain in power as long
as it shuns extremism and sticks to the middle path. A major encouraging factor is that
the BJP's allies have more than 100 seats between them which places them in a
position to exercise a restraining influence on the zealots of the Sangh Pariwar |
