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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J Stone who wrote (29323)	10/10/1999 2:49:00 PM
From: Cheryl Galt	Respond to of 32384

Jeff, I agree that Ligand's price "should" go up as hopes rise for the likely T/CTCL approval -- with news due by Dec 23. But there are so many near-term uncertainties -- including tax-loss selling season -- that I'm unwilling to speculate about Ligand's price between now and year end. Elan is another wild card ... Ligand has had MUCH good news lately -- that improves its financial stability and long-term outlook. However, the Street -- interested in ASSURED, BIG, near-term profits -- yawns. IMO, Poor communication leading to last quarter's outrageous negative surprise has soured Ligand's reputation with the Street. Ligand will have to re-earn the Street's confidence in its pronouncements. I also think the market wants to see profits from marketed products, not just revenue. SG&A currently overwhelm revenue -- which is typical for companies moving from R&D to production. The Street needs evidence that Ligand can make the transition. -------- Targretin's financial potential is a huge unknown. Blockbuster, leading to quick price spike? Maybe .... More likely, Targretin for breast cancer will turn out to be a good cash cow, for sponsoring other in-house products -- helping Ligand keep independent of big pharma, helping it evolve to the next level. I don't expect a STABLE higher price until this question is answered. --------- On Ligand, I'm cautiously optimistic -- with a LONG-term perspective. IMO, the odds between now and next June (including the fate of the warrants) are a crap shoot. Regards. Cheryl

To: J Stone who wrote (29323)	10/10/1999 3:13:00 PM
From: Cheryl Galt	Respond to of 32384

Thoughts on the warrants ... They're in dwindling supply, and usually thinly traded. I too wonder what kind of swap happened, and why ... Today's warrants look to me like a cheap gamble on short-term results -- a mere 8-month time frame, and only $2/share on the line. One could get lucky, if there's a spike during that time. And there's a good chance of that happening. BTW, the supply of these warrants (due next June3) is down. This thread reported the early exercise at year-end of 1998. But there was another clump exercised in May 1999. I've meant to re-locate that info and post it, but haven't had time .... I wonder if the investor is holding, or sold for ~$11 in June/July ... From the 2Q 10-Q, reported 8/16/1999: 6. WARRANTS In May 1999, Ligand received net proceeds of approximately $3.5 million from an investor who elected to exercise warrants to purchase 625,000 shares of Ligand common stock. --------------- BTW, the last few SEC reports -- from the 2Q on -- have bits of relevant information, especially on the Elan deal. freeedgar.com Cheryl