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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: lee kramer who wrote (65501)10/10/1999 6:32:00 PM
From: Jenna  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 120523
 
Earnings Plays as Intermediate holds. I'll let Long John answer your questions, but as far as Market Gems Picks go, we are testing the ONES THAT HAVE GIVEN BUY SIGNALS, not just every stock on the calendar (since I've put up a group of IPO's that are there just for informative purposes, so we can take advantage of anticipatory upswing if it comes). Long John will answer the rest, since he's the analyst, but the information plus the fact that I've held less through earnings this quarter and LOST more on NOT HOLDING, which is rare leads me to want to formulate as much as we can a 'composite of technical and fundamental characterists of a stock that would be SAFER to hold through earnings'... or at least the 'hottest' time frame for such stocks. I'd like to compare these with stocks like EMLX, SCOC, MSTR,BOBJ, JAKK, and AMCC which have exploded during the last weeks on the calendar and on the newsletter and what effect that explosion to their 52 week high will be on their earnings report, which other than for amcc is still a week away for the others.

Of course everything is risky but I've gotten some ideas already and a lot of you do notice that ADBE, INTU, MACR, KING, VRTY, ADIC etc would have been fine through earnings. There is a lot to consider but the preponderant criteria weighs strongest at present on: over 40-50% expected EPS growth, at least 10% below the 52 week high, lower float, an analyst upgrade within the last 30 days, outlook for the earnings acceleration and velocity going forward, NOT a very high profile stock (i.e. BGEN, XRX, GE, IBM etc)..

Whatever transpires, we are going to fully expose the "earnings Plays" and newsletter stocks to more vigorous analysis, uniform tracking (on a website designated for this), uniform buy/hold/sell calls in perhaps a 'chat like environment'..the format for all this to be determined in the next 4 weeks. We will be have both momentum, high flyers (KIDE, AGIL, PHCM) and 'nice' stocks like ADIC, BBOX and PUMA, on one forum. And we will be adding some more shorting opportunities, as they present themselves. This will not be completed in one month, but little by little we will erect a completed 'fundamentally sound, strong earnings growth area on Market Gems' dedicated solely to earnings plays from first appearance on Calendar (roughly 1 month before report) to their report next up until the stocks future quarter/s (3 months and further)



To: lee kramer who wrote (65501)10/10/1999 8:40:00 PM
From: Jenna  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 120523
 
"Microcap GEM" - KARE.. declared split after close Friday. among all the IPO's, high flyers, lies KARE, unpretentious, unhyped and probably unappreciated even though its stock has risen 300% this year. This company produces those diaper changing table in rest rooms among other baby things (you guys out there just take us on our word, they are there).. 21% growth in next 2-3 years and undervalued (PEG .70) to boot. Great chart, fundamentals.. volume was 45% below average but it should sprint about the split news takes hold. Not a trading stock but one to check out for your portfolio. Earnings out 10/20/99 cbs.marketwatch.com



To: lee kramer who wrote (65501)10/10/1999 9:52:00 PM
From: Long John  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 120523
 
Lee, thanks for the questions, I'm glad you made me look at the data again. I made a mistake. The results should look like this:

68% of the Earnings Plays opened higher after earnings were reported. By the close of the first day after earnings only 45% were still up for the day. Whether or not the stock closed up or down the day before earnings did not make a difference by itself. The percentages I quoted earlier compared the closing price 1 day after earnings to the close 2 days before earnings (instead of 1 day). The stocks that closed up the day before did gain about 1% more on average after earnings, but that is not a significant difference. However, how the stock performed just before earnings is one factor out of many that can be used to decide when to hold through earnings. I will keep running tests like these to find significant results.

Anyway, the sample size was 212, the time period was April - September, 1999. The Earnings Plays included in the sample were those that Jenna called on SI as having buy triggers before earnings. These are the plays that I have been tracking on my web site and that I used for the analyses I wrote for the MG Manual. Sorry for the mix-up.

John