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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (29008)	10/10/1999 6:44:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, Although I am bearish for the very long term (within 5 years the P/E of the S&P back in the 15-20 range or lower), for the shorter term, I am noticing some slight bullish hints. For the short-term(1-5 days), I have CLASS 1 SELL signals. As mentioned previously, I got back to back SELL signals which statistically is a bullish sign. It could just be due to option expiration as Lee indicated, or something else. Im not saying that we are going to blast to new highs immediately, but that I am making sure that I am not overly BEARISH. I just need to see how my CLASS 1 SELL signals perform. I also mentioned that I have a CLASS 1 BUY signal in CRUDE OIL, and it should bounce very soon. However, it appears that it could just be a bounce in a larger downtrend. If we do get a bounce to the upside in CRUDE early next week per my signals, then that could push the rates up some, however not sure if the forth coming bounce in CRUDE will last too long. This is really getting confusing, and we have next weeks trade report, and who knows how/if they will skew those numbers. seeya

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (29008)	10/10/1999 6:51:00 PM
From: radames	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

heinz,, i agree completely with your statements,,the long bond should be a big concern for the market it is at 6.19 and going higher the last time it touched 6.25 the internets tanked as well as the nasdaq,,my problem with this market is that i think it is made up of smoke and mirrors because of the indexes such as the nasdaq,,it is at an all time high and the long bond is at 6.19 percent and rising and that does,t show me that the market is not thinking rationally about intrerst rates,if they weren't going up in the near future the bond market would be alot closer to 6.0% if not under,,the reason that it is not is because the bond market is bigger than the equity market and much more affected by intrest rates and is telling us that they are going higher,which the market seems to be ignoring.in addition the market is looking to earnings and when you have big tech companies like xerox dissappointing that shows that the earnings front is not all that rosey and if a really high p/e company disappoints like say an ebay than watch out below.imo tuesday will be a big day for the high p/e companies with aol earnings,if they don't blow away the whisper i say all high p/e stox sell off big!!.look at yhoo with it's 50 billion dollar plus market cap on .14C eps ,okay they had a great report but didn't the market put that into it's stock price at 175 a share ?could you imagine when these comanies don't have 100% growth anymore ,,that will be the day they all go down and never,ever come back,,and that day will happen it is just a matter of when!!!

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (29008)	10/10/1999 10:16:00 PM
From: TimbaBear	Respond to of 99985

I agree with your post and the points you make. It just feels to me that there is some factor at play in the bond market that we are not giving enough attention and that this factor is really what is behind the lack of buying....what comes to mind are several possibilities: a high amount of competition from corporate issuances; big holders selling consistantly (Japan, investment houses, Buffet), I just don't know....like you say, the falling oil prices and falling (or at least not rising) employment numbers, should have had a more positive impact than it did.