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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (67675)	10/10/1999 6:21:00 PM
From: IceShark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

I don't know why you bother with this Heinz. The US equity market is going to move up through the end of the year. No October slide. Speaking of October slides, an oft cited mythical reason is "fund" tax selling. Does anyone have a clue how many (and % to total) funds have an oddball Oct 31 year end? I don't think it is many and can't figure out where this myth sprouted from other than fund Board of Directors need to vote on what they are going to do by year end, ergo Oct 31 enters the picture from the viewpoint of lower level employees that really don't have a clue as to what is going on. I have discussed this with top level fund guys before and after they get done laughing, they shrug their shoulders, too. WTFIGO?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (67675)	10/10/1999 6:26:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

so, are you saying i should buy more DELL? -g-

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (67675)	10/11/1999 9:17:00 AM
From: BGR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Heinz, My understanding is that the Fed tightened money supply first, then on realizing their mistake, tried to backtrack - which was like using modern antibiotics after the patient had already died from the medieval treatment of drawing blood. All over the political landscape, there were righteous calls for pain w/o an iota of economic understanding (imagine a zillion Luc's all around, all at once). In Japan, too, the bubble was deliberately deflated by the monetary authorities. Liquidity crises are nothing new, and solutions are also age old. Also, liquidity crises do not necessarily indicate a structural problem with the system (did you get a chance to read the Krugman book that I recommended?). The solution, often, involves just adding additional liquidity to the system and creating a little inflation. However, usually, relief from liquidity crises/deflation do not come from having a strong currency and relatively high real interest rates, as it translates to tighter money supply for a net importer. OTOH, there's the present opportunity to force the banks to clean up their books. Which one will the BoJ choose? I think that they are going to let the printing presses run in full swing in near future. -BGR.