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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Knighty Tin who wrote (68922)10/11/1999 11:30:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 132070
 
To All, I have started buying QQQ puts today. It is kind of a risk this time, as Paper Chase has not spoken up on indices lately, but I have to break that umbilical cord some day. <g> I bought the Nov 120s.



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (68922)10/11/1999 1:59:00 PM
From: Terry Maloney  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
Thanks once more, Michael, for your clarifications regarding your 90/10 account. The concept of only putting 10% at risk reminds me of Gerald Loeb -- perhaps not coincidentally? <g>

Do you have any general rules on how far out in time and out of the money the puts should be? How 'cheap' they should be, in effect?

For example, assuming a 100K portfolio ... that's 10K for puts ... say 10 different issues for diversity, so I'd have 1K for Dell, that's 10 $1 puts ... I could buy (based on Friday's prices, more or less) Oct 45's or Nov 40's or Jan 32 1/2's ... so I'd need to see Dell at $35 by Friday, $30 by November, or $22 1/2 by January to get a 1000% home run ...

Or I could buy 5 $2 puts ... the Jan 37 1/2's for instance ... but now I'd need to see Dell at 17 1/2, so the Jan 32 1/2's are a better bet in terms of getting the home run, albeit somewhat riskier with regard to return of capital.

The Jan 25's at $1/4 are riskier still. They have the same home run threshold as the 32 1/2's, but are some 6 3/4 points further out in terms of return of capital -- there seems to be something of a U-shaped curve here, it would appear ...



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (68922)10/11/1999 2:46:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 132070
 
mike, looks like your qqq put risk just went to zero! ;-)



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (68922)10/11/1999 3:49:00 PM
From: eWhartHog  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 132070
 
Mike,

I recently read the autobiography of Robert Merton on the Nobel Prize website and noticed that he and Myron Scholes set up an open-end fund, Money Market/Options Investment Inc., along 90/10 lines in 1976 which wasn't a commercial success.

He moved on to Long-Term Capital Management in the 1990s, and given the fate of that firm would probably agree that switching from 90/10 to 0.01/99.99 was a big mistake. <g>

nobel.se

Cheers,
John