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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NY Stew who wrote (8037)	10/11/1999 9:17:00 AM
From: voop	Respond to of 54805

RE identifying a tornado with second gen IPG subscribers.. Thanks Stew IF a STB, Satellite, or GuidePLus VCR is sold, I assume the respective manufacurer will publish info quarterly. Perhaps the Investor department at GMST can help (seems they should be counting) Too bad we don't have an "independent" CDMA subscriber count. Perhaps we should nominate you president of IPG.org to follow this. Mike, when you get from vacation...

To: NY Stew who wrote (8037)	10/24/1999 3:40:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 54805

Voop asked: How can we measure second generation IPG subscribers/users to know we are in a tornado? Stew responded: A great question for Mike Buckley. TV Guide Interactive is scheduled to start advertising this month. I suspect the launch and news coverage should give Gemstar some more recognition. Let's talk this through and maybe we'll come up with something. First, I don't think it's necessary that we quantify 2nd generation boxes any more than we quantify 3rd or 4th generation boxes. The basic market that we're talking about is EPGs (not being specific as to limit it to IPGs), so let's leave it at that. My opinion. Second, as we discuss this more and more, it will become evident that the real story is about advertising revenue. In that sense, Gemstar takes on a business model that looks a little bit (not entirely) like AOL in which there is a proprietary door through which advertisers must pass to offer their products. In that light, I think we need to keep a very, very close watch on advertising revenue which has already begun to a miniscule extent and is itemized by the company. Add to that e-commerce revenue which we haven't seen itemized yet if it exists. As I think about this stuff more and more, Gemstar's EPGs satisfy the Gorilla part of the model and the advertising stuff satisfies the Godzilla part of the model. What do you get when you combine a Gorilla with a Godzilla? More thoughts by anyone? --Mike Buckley