Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Collings who wrote (42651)	10/11/1999 8:49:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 116764

Michael Collings, thanx for your thoughtful post.I take a more forceful view however and believe that things will evolve much more rapidly that the Japan in'87 or MArmstrong's beliefs. The reason is that we have a unique coincidence and lining of the stars at this time. Needless to rehash the particulars but the market is telling you.Listen, The yen is moving up.This AM the Euro is moving up. The rest of the world no longer will give America the lead. Our social problems are just as bad as theirs in terms of social expectations and spending. y2k will be of marginal importance except perhaps for the US who is highly dependent on cheap goods from overseas to keep our inflation down.If we don't get it it will just add to the simmering inflationary pot. 3rd world has just survived Armageddon last Oct. for them y2k will be dessert. I am not proposing to make gold a currency backer. I haven't thought about this long enough to have an opinion. I disagree however with the last 30 years system of having the good faith of Governments tell you that their currency is sound. Compared to that perhaps gold is better. It may look even better next year if this system collapses under social obligations. I am calling this top because it is easy: we've had 2 interest rate increases. We know from past experiences that the Fed will double that no at least, to control inflation. The economy has to slow down significantly before there are enough freed workers to forgo raises. Either that, or cut spending. Both political suicide.In an election year every politician will be protecting his ass rather than the Nation's. The reason that gold will come back is because the world will see that the US Dollar, or even their own currency are unreliable. So they will buy gold. The largest? gold mining co ( Anglofields ) sees that and makes an investment to buy another gold co., TA Message #42651 from Michael Collings at Oct 11 1999 12:21AM TA: I believe Hutch and Armstrong don't necessarily disagree with your arguments on whole...... Armstrong believes that down the road things will get very messy.... but he contends that the scenario is down the road sometime after 2002 or 2003. He is also a believer that that is when gold will finally take off for real. Armstrong makes some very good arguments and I suggest you read him. I am not a gold stander in regard to floating currency. That system worked worse than the present one and to cry about it is like crying over the loss of horseshoes. The gold standard could not possibly work in the type of economy we have. That said, it is obvious that the floating system is loaded with flaws as well..... The real question is "are we to the point when all the deficit spending and private and government debt is about to implode?" Armstrong makes a strong case that the time is not yet. His contention that y2k will be very bullish for the dollar makes sense. Since we are more ready than any other country, the flight to dollars is all but assured. I am most definitely a gold bug, but I realize that manias can last a long time and to try to pinpoint the exact top is useless. I remember watching Japan in the 80"s and knowing full well that it was going to implode but it kept going up much longer than anyone expected. I hold gold with the full knowledge that I cannot know when gold will begin to move but that sometime.... sometime... all the positive fundamentals will come into play. The fundamentals you site have been building for a long time and may continue to build a few more years if Armstrong is correct. I would be hesitant to resort to name calling when expounding your views. Personally, I'll hold the gold position for as long as it takes. I've been in gold stocks for a year and I'm sure I have awhile to go before I'd be willing to sell. I console myself with the idea that I am now in long term capital gain territory versus ordinary income. I won't be devastated it this is not the "real move" and ecstatic if it is.

To: Michael Collings who wrote (42651)	10/11/1999 9:47:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 116764

Corrected version: Michael Collings: can you point a link as to why Armstrong does not feel we have a approached the point in Europe and the USA where Government debt and deficit spending will implode? Secondly, after thinking about it ever so briefly, I think gold will make a good substitute for the current system for currency back up until that is we find a better one. The present system has saddled us, our children our grandchildren and even the unborn with an ever growing debt and interest payments on the debt. How can gold be worse than that? I rest my case. The more you look at it the better gold looks: Western Civilization has yet to figure out how to pay for Social Programs without going into debt:bad for inflation, good for gold, TA @goldskin.com Message #42651 from Michael Collings at Oct 11 1999 12:21AM TA: I believe Hutch and Armstrong don't necessarily disagree with your arguments on whole...... Armstrong believes that down the road things will get very messy.... but he contends that the scenario is down the road sometime after 2002 or 2003. He is also a believer that that is when gold will finally take off for real. Armstrong makes some very good arguments and I suggest you read him. I am not a gold stander in regard to floating currency. That system worked worse than the present one and to cry about it is like crying over the loss of horseshoes. The gold standard could not possibly work in the type of economy we have. That said, it is obvious that the floating system is loaded with flaws as well..... The real question is "are we to the point when all the deficit spending and private and government debt is about to implode?" Armstrong makes a strong case that the time is not yet. His contention that y2k will be very bullish for the dollar makes sense. Since we are more ready than any other country, the flight to dollars is all but assured. I am most definitely a gold bug, but I realize that manias can last a long time and to try to pinpoint the exact top is useless. I remember watching Japan in the 80"s and knowing full well that it was going to implode but it kept going up much longer than anyone expected. I hold gold with the full knowledge that I cannot know when gold will begin to move but that sometime.... sometime... all the positive fundamentals will come into play. The fundamentals you site have been building for a long time and may continue to build a few more years if Armstrong is correct. I would be hesitant to resort to name calling when expounding your views. Personally, I'll hold the gold position for as long as it takes. I've been in gold stocks for a year and I'm sure I have awhile to go before I'd be willing to sell. I console myself with the idea that I am now in long term capital gain territory versus ordinary income. I won't be devastated it this is not the "real move" and ecstatic if it is.