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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: oilbabe who wrote (52764)	10/11/1999 6:32:00 AM
From: oilbabe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Brent up .18 so far this morning...

To: oilbabe who wrote (52764)	10/11/1999 10:32:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Ya gotta believe !.... Nothing but Greeeeeeeeeeeeeeen on the screeeeeeeeeeeeeeen. As Martha says; "that's a good thing." FGI; marcC - curious as to if FGI's reincorporation in the state of Mississippi had anything to do with those "options" - nahhhhh,couldn't of...(VBG); no one has that degree of foresight. "Art of the Deal" is right Big... Momma allways said; Never play poker with a slow talking 'good ole boy' from Mississippi... who has initials for his first name (VBG)... Yes; ole' JL did real well for himself on this deal. Well we have a near record amount of upgrades directly into the face of a rather substantial blow off. A very interesting and totally coordinated "cleansing" of the Oilpatch we have just witnessed imho. The "coordinated" efforts & the "Win - Win" potential of this, was not a mistake and led to me buying headlong into it... 1. Crude Oil Traders had to... just had to, unwind the near record long contract position in crude oil futures. 2. Everyone knew they had to... as well. A great "hedge" play on the unwinding - profit taking on crude futures contracts, was to simultaneously - short the OSX given the leverage to crude prices. The simultaneous playing up of all the spin-doctoring of OPEC leaking, the potential that the OPEC meeting was to discuss increasing production prior to the Spring Meeting etc... was no accident either. 3. The Institutional holders & Mutual Funds; got to step aside nearly at fiscal year end for them; guaranteeing attraactive bonus levels & YTD performance #'s. By doing so; they also stepped aside - letting the short sellers take the sector down - as it was nearly defenseless... thus setting themselves up to buy substantially lower; as the short sellers begin covering. The Brokerage Analysts get to be hero's - issuing all of these upgrades based on the obvious, still very positive fundamentals for the sector; and get to pound the table on the valuations here; knowing that their upgrade timing would create fodder - some buying interest & surely lots of "holding" into the Institutional selling & short selling - allowing Big Money to exit more profitably... Now as the individual investor got crushed, holding, or buying too soon into the Analyst upgrades; and finally once again capitulates to margin calls right at the bottom (unfortunately) the sector magically; once more turns on a dime in near unison... The shaking out the little fish & coordinating the futures traders getting out at the top, the Institutions getting out at the top; the short sellers doing their dirty work - unimpeded; then exiting as the Institutional buyers return on the backs of the early Analyst upgrades that created the individual investor road kill - exit opportunities for them earlier... is near criminal. Sad; but if you've seen the game before - it's easier to exit at the intial signs of weakness at the tops; as you see the "game" beginning; and most importantly - it's easier to be confident buying strongly into these "types" of irrational selloffs directly into very strongly positive fundamentals. Still se us hitting OSX 100 (maybe not closing there) by year end... Lot's of money to be made in the 'patch in the next few months... E&P's earnings reports will be very strong here... The small cap Nat Gas plays never really outran their fundamentals here... CRK real cheap; RGO is a gift, EVER is way too oversold here... these small caps are bottomed here - not much further downside risk imho.Like OEI UPR PXD in bigger names. Loving GLBL - looking at more MDR on the Indonesian pipeline contract audit news being positive... MDR is a gift here... sterling balance sheet & a cash horde... PGO still cheap here today - 50% upside by Xmas imho... riding ESV & UTI as my main driller plays...