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Non-Tech : Knight/Trimark Group, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Korn who wrote (4804)	10/11/1999 9:43:00 AM
From: blankmind	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10027

KP said 37 cents was "a couple of cents too aggressive" is it possible the mer analyst missed the mumbling and kp said "fifty percent too aggressive"? care to give us that model you used on earnings and ratio to price again with the new number of .17-.19? seriously: will the new model not work or did they need to cut deeply now to ensure a solid future over other mm and ecn's? will expansion be enough? was it a one time glitch? but has nite sacrificed something this q for market share going forward?

To: Gary Korn who wrote (4804)	10/11/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10027

Hello, everybody! I haven't been posting here for some time, on the theory "if you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all". Certainly, I didn't feel like posting "doom and gloom" day after day, on this board. However, as many of you know, I have not held back in my PMs during this time. The strategy I announced on this board many months ago, and affirmed in my PMs, was - SHORT EVERY RALLY IN NITE. I have also expressed strong reservations about NITE management - a view I have not seen any reason to alter. NITE sank pretty much steadily since 60+ some months ago. At the time there was a lot of questions as to "why". I think today, we can see that there were excellent reasons "why". At a certain point, I grew convinced that there must be something very wrong, judging by the price action - and it is now clear that NITE has fallen disastrously short of expectations. All the while IR kept saying "everything is just fine". Everything was not fine. The market was telling us that - you cannot have the kind of price slide for months at a stretch, for over 60% without something extremely wrong going on. Yet, NITE management was always LATE with information. From time to time - after already a lot of damage was done - they'd mumble something to the analysts... NEVER to shareholders. The shareholders (at least the small ones!), are always the last to find out - way to go, KP! So meanwhile, folks could load up, only to see the price sink again. This pre-announcement is what should have been done ages ago. I guess they needed to let the insiders sell at a higher price, and the bigger holders had to have a chance to unload higher - Waterhouse and other "big" holders, were after all early shareholders in this venture, and you take care of your pals. Do you think for one second, that NITE management didn't know what was going on? Not a chance. They knew, and could see from day one, that the new pricing structure would cut profits dramatically - yet they kept silent (other than IR snowjobs, if you called them, of course). Really, there is no good spin to put on all this: management of NITE sucks when it comes to taking care of their COMMON, small shareholders. Why didn't they come out with this pre-announcements LONG ago - and not let folks kill themselves on margin, and "bargain hunt" this fake? There are only two possibilities: they didn't know, or they knew, but kept silent - either way, it's damning. If they "didn't know" - I'd say there were utterly incompetent. The market sure as hell knew - for months, it kept saying "something's rotten in the kingdom of Denmark". Hmmmmm... if NITE management doesn't know their own business as well as the market does, then I'd call that incompetence. However, I believe they knew perfectly well. This announcement is funny - coming so long after the quarter closed. They knew long ago - the first day the new pricing was contemplated. But they kept silent. Where from here? Is this "the worst"? It doesn't really matter in the short term. What matters, is the long term - and I see no reason to change the view I expressed back in July - it will take NITE a looooong time to climb out of this hole, to make up this decline, to get back to its all time high. Just watch the tax selling that'll take place - this stock has for many certainly been a great hedge against capital gains. One can wonder about this stock even long term. With this little earnings stream predictability, with this much uncertainty and continued evolution of the business model - just how great a multiple will the market be willing to give NITE. Get ready for a much more conventional financial stock p/e - the 18 - 26 range. Not to mention, having burned the investors as badly as they have (technical damage) - just how many will jump into this cesspool again. To me, the issue of paramount importance is: as an investor (as opposed to a short-term trader) - do I want my money in a company whose management treats their common shareholders as badly as NITE does? Do you enjoy always being the last to find out information that has a material (and often devastating) impact on your holdings? We can talk all day long about how "brilliant" KP is. Perhaps he is. But that does not make him a good caretaker of stockholder value. In any case - this dramatic fall-off in earnings and earnings prospects going forward certainly merited a pre-announcement. Today we have finally had it - closing the barn long after the horses are gone. Too bad, we haven't had this kind of communication long ago. What confidence can one have in these guys new assurances and predications I leave up to you to decide. I posted today, hoping that at long last, a more critical look will be taken at NITE's prospects and the quality of the management, not only from the point of view of their business acumen, but their concern with the welfare of their small shareholders (we already know they can take care of themselves - just look at the prices they sold at). Regards, Morgan