Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Int'l Wayside Gold Mines Ltd (IWA-VSE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: I Am Sandman who wrote (489)	10/18/1999 6:27:00 AM
From: Little Joe	Respond to of 1321

Speculativestocks Believes IWA May Have A Mine On Their Hands. This is an article from yesterday. " Misrepresentation, or fudging the numbers? Last week we saw a number of mining companies come clean on their hedging numbers and their potential exposure to a higher POG. Cambior and Ashanti have been looked at critically by nearly everyone, but there is still a lot of what could be called misrepresentation by others. ( actually companies like Barrick would call it CYA and hope no one sees what we are really saying ) Barrick has given their hedge figures in an abstract way, saying they are not currently subject to margin calls because of the company's financial strength. Of course if and/or when POG hits $350 they may well be subject to margin calls, but whatever precipitates, we know their stock price will be restricted for years to come at any price over $350 gold as it appears they hedged all their gold for the forseeable future. One of our picks, Glamis, that we decided was a good buy at $2.45 and hit $4.45 for a 95% gain has now dropped back under $4.00 and is likely to head lower as it is strongly hedged out to 2001, unless of course they cover. They have 36,000 oz/au as puts for 1999, however, as these are out of the money, they can elect to let them expire. This is not true of the calls however, as the more in the money they become the greater the incentive of the holders of the calls is to demand gold be delivered. This can be substantial. First, assuming they have to deliver their forward sales and calls for 1999, 16,400oz forward at $288 delivered, would leave them with a loss, delivering today, at $318 POG, of $492,000. they do not state what price the calls are, but say the average of them both is $301. This would indicate the calls are for about $320. In the case of Glamis, not a big deal at the moment. What is of concern is the next year position of 82,000oz at $288. These will cost the company $2.624 million if they do not close them out and only, only, if the price stays at $320. So how many other companies are in this position? You can be sure they will be fighting to keep the price down so they do not take the proverbial bath and there will be a lot of discussion as to how they got into this position at the conference currently being held in Denver of the major gold producers. General Markets. These got really beaten up last week and we stated over a month ago to watch out for just such an event. Well weren't wrong. We said the POG had changed to an uptrend about the same time and now was the time to buy and we were not wrong then as POG jumped to up to $339 before settling down to the current $317. This has caused all kinds of excitement in the market. We certainly hope all our readers heeded our comments and participated in some of these gains. The Dow and Nasdaq are at a very precarious place and we suggested the immediate downside for the Dow was somewhere near 9,800 and we actually expect this to be broken on the downside this week. We posted an article at speculativestocks.com that showed in graphical form where we saw the trouble spots with a clear downtrend occurring. Remember, a 10% drop is a correction, anything over 20% is a disaster, as the Dow has been held up by only a few stocks, same as the Nasdaq. We have been skeptical about the strength of these markets and we have especially been skepitacl about the 'official numbers' on inflation. Well with the 30yr Bond staying stubbornly above 6.25% the rest of the market agrees with us. Which brings us back to the gold market. this is normally a hedge against inflation and while some say we do fixate on it, we acknowledge that there are so many analysts following all the other markets that any commentary we made would be superfluous. However, that being said, as we look at things in a speculative light, we see lots of short term moves that other shrug off. We do expect, after a short period, that the gold market will move up further and we are looking at a potential upside for gold of $465. Now while this may seem high to many, we have an analysis of this at speculativestocks.com We also expect the next large move to come in the silver market. We have also reposted our last year article on silver in the articles section of the website. In closing, watch our guest pick Wayside Gold IWA/VSE this next two weeks. We believe they have a mine on their hands and we have heard there are others that now believe this too. It has traded heavily up to $0.20 this past week and there still has been no news. This tells us the insiders are accumulating the stock." BJ Speculative Stocks.

To: I Am Sandman who wrote (489)	10/19/1999 5:47:00 AM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1321

Gold Back At Centre Stage Monday October 18, 5:16 pm Eastern Time Company Press Release Washington Agreement Has Restored Gold's Role in Official Sector DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 18, 1999-- Gold is back at the centre of international financial thinking, Miss Haruko Fakuda, chief executive of the World Gold Council said today. In a keynote speech at the annual investment conference of the Denver Gold Group, Fakuda said that the agreement approved by the world's leading central bankers in Washington three weeks ago had returned gold to centre stage. ''Gold is back with its customary charisma. What greater affirmation can there be for gold as a monetary asset than the declaration by 15 of the world's largest gold holders that 'gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves'?'' she asked. The Washington Agreement was agreed on Sept. 26 by the Group of Ten central bank governors, with the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Lawrence Summers, and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, also present. ''It is a remarkable achievement. It is extremely rare for independently-minded central banks to agree to co-ordination of this magnitude on reserve management,'' she said. ''This is not just a one-off joint intervention in foreign exchange markets of the kind we see from time to time, but an agreement to last at least five years.'' Fakuda said the Washington Agreement marked the first time in 28 years that the governments with the largest gold holdings had made a positive joint statement on gold. ''Those three decades have been a period in which gold was persistently sidelined by the official sector attempting to demonetise gold. Yet the amount of gold held in reserve by the official sector has barely declined during that period, a decline of a mere six percent in three decades. The attempt to replace gold with SDRs as a reserve asset was an abject failure,'' said Fakuda. ''Far from gold being marginalised and finished as a monetary asset, the latest IMF proposal uses gold as money to pay back debt! What happened to SDRs, once thought to be the answer to external payment problems?'' Fakuda added that the Washington Agreement was significant in several respects and it raised some questions for the future. Although it did not have the force of an international treaty, it was signed by each central bank governor and had a broader dimension as the U.S. and Japan, although not signatories, were in accord with the spirit of the Agreement and both countries had stated they were not sellers of gold. The Agreement will also be monitored by the Bank for International Settlements. The Agreement covered nearly 50 percent of the world's official gold holdings and with the addition of the U.S., Japan, the IMF and BIS, and Australia who were also non-sellers and South Africa which was not expected to sell given its opposition to U.K. sales, over 85 percent of the official sector gold holdings ''are not out of the market.'' Fakuda also pointed out that by 2005 when the agreement is to be ''reviewed,'' both the U.K. and Sweden might be either in or preparing to be in the Euro, thus bringing their reserves under ECB control. ''How strongly politically motivated this agreement has been amongst the European nations is one of the questions that will be answered in time. But it is now certain, whether by default or intent, that the Euro has equal if not greater gold 'backing' than the U.S. dollar,'' she said. ''Perhaps the most interesting and far-reaching question for the future that comes to my mind is whether this agreement will end up as a forerunner in some form to a return to an official price for gold. Though that is unlikely and was certainly in no way intended to lead to this, at least one of the triggers for the agreement was the price falling to a level not seen since 1978. ''What level of price would be appropriate and acceptable by the major official holders for valuing their gold reserves? Will any of this imply central bank intervention in the conventional sense in the gold market and will BIS continue its co-ordinating function in future to encompass all the G10 countries?'' she asked. ''It opens up ultimately a whole host of philosophical as well as practical questions about the role, nature, and the 'value' of gold as a monetary asset. In any event, the world's largest holders of gold have not said that they will be keeping their chestnuts in their bag; what will other central banks do?'' said Fakuda. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contact: World Gold Council, New York George Milling-Stanley, 212/317-3848 World Gold Council, London Gary Mead, (011-44171) 930-5171 or Marston Webb International, New York Victor Webb, 212/684-6601 or Bankside Consultants, London Keith Irons, (011-44171) 220-7477