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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader Dave who wrote (3065)	10/11/1999 10:05:00 PM
From: Lee L.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

Two drunks propping each other up. Argggh... I guess I'm a little more hopeful. However, I've stayed away from both PSFT and VNTV. I've been happy with VNTV's products as a customer. Their organization has been in disarray for the last year from what I can see. I don't follow PSFT, but they appear to be in the toilet as well. I don't know what's driving SEBL right now, but I know that I'm loving it. If 2000 is a repeat of 1999, I'll have to fly out to CA, give Tom a big wet kiss on the lips and apologize for all of the uncomplimentary things that I've said about him.

To: Trader Dave who wrote (3065)	10/20/1999 6:35:00 PM
From: Beltropolis Boy	Respond to of 6974

>Two drunks propping each other up. dave. i think William here could've just as easily used your intro as well. <vbg> (read: "negative times a negative" in the Information Week opinion piece on PSFT-VNTV below.) if that doesn't pique your keen interest, however, then i might direct you to this week's cover story, which features none other than Siebel: October 18, 1999 Why Siebel Matters While others focus on "insanely great" software, Siebel Systems is winning with customer-centric values By Jeff Sweat informationweek.com ----- October 18, 1999 Taking Stock: New Math For PeopleSoft Does the sum of two merged companies exceed the value of their parts? By William Schaff informationweek.com Do you remember the first time your math teacher told you that a negative number multiplied by a negative number generates a positive number? Your first instinct was probably to go home and tell your parents how dumb your teacher was. As mathematicians like to say, however, math is based on proof, not hypothesis. PeopleSoft Inc. (PSFTðNasdaq) and Vantive Corp. (VNTVðNasdaq) appear to agree with the mathematicians. Both companies already preannounced dismal earnings for the third calendar quarter. Revenue has been sluggish, and both have been struggling lately. So why would PeopleSoft want to buy Vantive, a leading customer-relationship management and sales-force automation vendor with emphasis in call-center and customer-service operations? Obviously, PeopleSoft thinks that buying Vantive gives it a strong vertically integrated product that can be incorporated into its back-end enterprise resource planning application. This can only be helped by the two companies' long-standing business relationship. PeopleSoft said it would acquire Vantive for 0.825 shares of PeopleSoft for each share of Vantive, or about $433 million, based on PeopleSoft's stock price on the day the deal was announced. As with many such announcements, investors sold shares of the acquiring company on the news. Vantive's stock rose more than 30%. The real question, though, is whether this "new math" will eventually work. Besides being a solid front-end application vendor, Vantive has good business relations in the international arena and more than 800 customers; PeopleSoft has strong business ties within the United States and more than 3,000 clients. The marriage could be complementary in opening doors. I could easily argue, however, that the companies have been working together for some time and the relationship has not resulted in booming business on either side. Let's suppose that Y2K is an event of the past; in other words, we are now in calendar year 2000. The ERP pipeline has been building again, and PeopleSoft has competitive vertical applications to offer customers. The real question is, does anyone care? My bet is that the sale allows PeopleSoft to be slightly more competitive in the request-for-proposal process with the SAPs and Oracles of this world. But at the end of the day, it just gets PeopleSoft back in the game. Another issue may be that some clients prefer Clarify, Siebel, or other leading CRM and sales-force automation vendors to the Vantive product line. That has been the case for a while, even though Vantive has been out for some time and remains a technologically strong product choice. This also doesn't change the macro landscape, where larger deal sizes result in longer sales cycles as well as uneven revenue and profit patterns. Also, no matter how smoothly a merger is expected to go, it's never seamless. My biggest concern is whether combining the two companies, given their current operational issues, will extend the recovery period. I don't expect any Securities and Exchange Commission or Justice Department concerns over either compliance or competition and market share. PeopleSoft continues to have a pristine balance sheet. The company has 260 million shares outstanding, but the acquisition will add another 23 million shares. PeopleSoft has said it expects weak revenue and earnings per share for the most recent quarter, with revenue in the range of $290 million to $310 million. Earnings per share is projected to be 0 to 2 cents. The company pipeline is improving, and the Vantive deal should be accretive to earnings, according to management, as early as 2000. I'll take a wait-and-see attitude on this item. Vantive, in its announcement, said third-quarter 1999 earnings per share would be around minus-16 cents to minus-18 cents on revenue of $42 million to $43 million. Both ranges were significantly below Wall Street expectations. This combo would not be my first investment choice, but my math tells me that the combined company is better than the two companies separately. But like a good mathematician, I still require proof. William Schaff is chief investment officer at Bay Isle Financial Corp. in San Francisco, which manages the InformationWeek 100 Stock Index. You can reach him at bschaff@bayisle.com.

To: Trader Dave who wrote (3065)	11/18/1999 6:44:00 PM
From: Beltropolis Boy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

>Two drunks propping each other up. (quite obviously, i can't get enough of that quote.) <vbg> so ... you know i'd love to hear how you'd characterize the (re)entree of big blue? betty ford ... ? but perhaps this topic isn't even worthy of today's beajolais (third thursday of the month if you hadn't noticed). to steal a line from a friend of ours (NN): NotafraidtodrinkitstraightfromthebottleCM wavplace.com ----- PeopleSoft stock jumps on IBM buyout rumor By Bloomberg News Special to CNET News.com November 18, 1999, 1:30 p.m. PT Shares of PeopleSoft rose as much as 18 percent on speculation that IBM is interested in buying the struggling maker of business-management software. PeopleSoft has been the subject of recurring acquisition speculation as it has struggled to boost revenue amid corporate delays in software purchases. Some investors and traders have said IBM might be interested in buying the Pleasanton, Calif.-based company because it would expand IBM's software product line. Kip Meintzner, head of PeopleSoft investor relations, declined to comment. IBM also declined to comment. PeopleSoft shares are little changed in the last year, rising 3 percent.