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To: Carl R. who wrote (49151)10/11/1999 11:49:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53903
 
Carl, my model shows net before taxes of $553 MM for this quarter if they have an ASP of $9.5. Since they have more than that in carry forward taxes, I come to $2.07/share. My model shows improvement in MUEI because of the recent Rambus problem at competitors, but not much. That should play well with the "scenario". However, by the time the earnings are released late in December, prices might already be declining and thus the stock should be over its peak, IMHO. Maybe the peak will be a double top with the January effect, providing HAL does not discover a continuation in the long term down trend (g).

$9.5 ASP is my absolute best case scenario. I have something more like $8 as average over the whole quarter, which cuts the earnings to $1.15/share (pretax).

Zeev



To: Carl R. who wrote (49151)10/11/1999 2:02:00 PM
From: Fabeyes  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
....cost is down around $4

The true unknown question.



To: Carl R. who wrote (49151)10/11/1999 2:39:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53903
 
>>Based on the small loss last quarter with ASP's around $5<<

carl, where did you hear asps were $5 last q?



To: Carl R. who wrote (49151)10/12/1999 12:36:00 AM
From: Glen2  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
>>Why can't they make $2-3 this quarter?<<

On 10/1/99, Peter Wolff, Managing Director of ING Barings
was quoted as having said that the then contract price was
$9.50 to $10.00. I'm sure that older contracts are lower.
The Compaq price is probably lower. He also said that cost
would approach $3.50 during the quarter, the result of
moving to 0.18u. Peter's call can be found on
www.vcall.com .

Good trading, Glen