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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (8082)	10/11/1999 1:47:00 PM
From: pann1128	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

UF, Somehow I knew that you would take me to task <g>. Ouch! I agree, the no margin rule is the safest. Not trying to ruin any lives here. Also, I am horrible at timing, so I don't even try. Sorry I posted that silly message. I don't mind the strongly worded admonition. Have learnt a lot from the esteemed contributors on this thread and I understand your position. pm

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (8082)	10/11/1999 1:49:00 PM
From: Peter Sherman	Respond to of 54805

truer words were never spoken - neither a borrower or a lender be - give to charity anonymously, but do not lend or borrow

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (8082)	10/11/1999 2:27:00 PM
From: Eric Jacobson	Respond to of 54805

UF, I agree with you about the use of margin and, as I've posted previously, with your views of market timing in general. I'm hopeless at it and have given up trying. However, I would suggest there is a market timing technique that is consistent with GG. This assumes a person is 100% invested in stocks and doesn't flit in and out. As LindyBill has suggested, it does make sense to combine the Russian Army technique with GG by selling your laggards and concentrating your funds into winners (especially gorillas). So, how does one do this timing wise? How do you know which is a leader or a laggard? I think some good answers can be derived William J. O'Neill's IBD techniques of buying when a stock emerges from a broad base (of at least 6 weeks) to make a new high. If anybody's interested, you may want to take a look at the IBD site at investors.com and click on Investment Education Course. Modules 18 and 24 are particularly on topic. I think a reasonable market timing strategy is to sell a laggard (one that's dawdling in the lower half it's 52-week range, or one that has been outperformed by stronger issues) and buy a stock that's emerging into higher ground after a consolidation period. This suggests that QCOM would have been a buy (i.e., sell a laggard in order to average up into QCOM) when it recently emerged to a new high at $200. Buying a stock making a new high is counterintuitive and downright scary to many people who have been programmed to "buy on dips" or "buy low sell high." Low is only relative, and a stock emerging from a broad base to a new high is often a precurser to much higher prices.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (8082)	10/11/1999 2:36:00 PM
From: pala	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

<<I strongly disagree with any approach that entails the use of margin. Warren Buffet advises to never to invest with borrowed money. I have seen many fellow SIers severely wounded due to margin; some of them WIPED OUT PERMANENTLY.>> Oh come on Uncle Frank, even 5 or 10% on a true Gorilla base. If I get a margin call on a 5% position, thats to good to pass up, I'll be to busy worrying about survival to return it <heh heh heh> Doug I know your right about my greed