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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (29088)	10/11/1999 7:03:00 PM
From: Karim Shariff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Challo, if you don't mind, may I ask who is Barbera? Thanks, Karim

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (29088)	10/12/1999 8:34:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Challo: The series of COMPX charts I posted to you two days ago in the middle of the night with brief commentary was to point out there can be two reads to chart formations. However, if a formation does not have one probability that scores a high percentage, then the formation is not worth the time to draw it. In addition, it is always wise to find additional indicators one can utilize to confirm or not what you expect from the formation. Now having said that, I would like to do a follow up post to my last Road Kill update... In my I-35 Road Kill Update September 15th, I gave a Market warning I have never done that before, "publicly". homestead.com My long-term technicals were (still are) signaling a topping process was (still is) in progress. Of course, the overall market could move up some from here, but I believe, if so, it will not be a major move. I tend to think we have seen a top in my OMC Index and if not, only marginal new highs will be set. Of course, I may well be wrong. However if I am right, this rotation process among equities is drawing to a conclusion and will example by an increase in volatility as rotation frequency increases, produced by indecision and moves in and out of safety. This will eventually lead to a different class of rotation, one that is out of equities. Investors might consider some wealth preservation measures or at the least keep a constant finger in the wind...<g> The trading range eluded too often, IMO has actually been a topping out process underway, which began last April and has intensified since July. Of course, some may look at it as a rolling correction and a basing process, time will tell. The 25 plus year bull-run is coming to a major pivot point. I am not sure if the bull is coming to an end, but the trading action is going to come back down well into the multi-decade rising trading channel. This could be quite the correction. It may even be referred to as a Bear Market, time will tell! I expect this to be obvious to most before the end of the year. I do not know if the downturn will be sharp, grinding or a combination of both. I suspect most likely some of both with sharp oscillations as the BTD crowd disbelieves and buys the dips a few times, before reality finally grabs them by their shrinking portfolios. These sharp oscillations we are seeing intraday should increase as the struggle at the top plays itself out. Remember that most of the investors and traders in this market have never experienced a down market. My combination chart includes the following: My OMC (Overall Market Composite) Index, the XAU, DYX and TYX Indexes. Monthly Combination Semi-Log Chart - Multi-decade view: homestead.com Weekly Combination Semi-Log Chart - Multi-year view homestead.com Daily OMC Semi-Log Chart - Multi-month view homestead.com How to interpret my charts: homestead.com NOTE: I will be away from my trading desk again much of this week. The Market is at a decision point and is poised to invalidate my read quickly, if it is going to. If the Market moves against my expectations and I am away from my desk, I may not be able to post a position reversal. Keep that in mind! Good trading all and remember to never marry a position! Regards, LG Disclaimer: The above is my opinion only and I reserve the right to be wrong. An overall market expectation is just that and should not be used in exclusion of the evaluation of individual equities or other investment instruments. Do not base any investment decision solely on anyone person's views or analysis. Do your own research and take responsibility for your investment decisions.