Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (44158)	10/11/1999 7:02:00 PM
From: FedWatcher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

After hours and Yahoo board Yahoo clowns are panicking all over about 205 quote on the Island at 205. The trade was executed at 17:38. The thing they do not bother to look at is that there is a later buy order at 220 which has not been fulfilled yet. The bottom line is that the volume in the after hours is so low that the price is just totally meaningless. FedWatcher

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (44158)	10/11/1999 7:50:00 PM
From: RoseCampion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Decided to look up the good Mr. David "sorry about my bipolar disorder" Heger's actual record. Since 1 June, when his employer started coverage of Q, we've had: date action price ---- ------------- ------- 1jun Accumulate 93.9375 21jun Downgrade:Maintain 130.5000 23jul Upgrade:Accumulate 154.6875 06aug Upgrade:Buy 147.7500 28sep Downgrade:Accumulate 193.6250 11Oct Downgrade:Maintain 222.5000 So if you'd bought Q on June 1, sold on every AGE downgrade, and held (or got back in immediately) on every upgrade, you'd have missed out on 53 points out of the 128.5 we've gained since June 1, or about 41% of the increase. (Not including the increased commission costs or effects of the spread.) My head hurts thinking about trying to analyze him in a more sophisticated way - modeling a strategy of doubling up on the upgrades, selling off half on the downgrades - but I bet it would be even worse, given that his upgrade to ACCUMULATE on 23Jul immediately preceeded one of our bigger slumps this year. (Giving credit where it's due, though, his subsequent upgrade to BUY on 6Aug quite nearly called the local minima, our last look back at the halcyon days of the 140's.) Looking at this record, I don't think the guy is actively evil or manipulative, but is just another dangerously overpaid numbercruncher who who labors under the delusion that his valuation spreadsheets actually connote some Higher Truth, and that that Truth must be immediately relayed down to us mere mortals. "Program analysis" without any real thought or reality checking - about as dangerous as pure "program trading". What was it Gregg Powers said, way back in April sometime? Something along the lines of, "I have an expensive Bloomberg terminal on my desk but I hardly ever use it to look at prices. The most important thing I do each day is to talk to people: competitors, management, customers, and the like. That's where the price of the stock is really determined." (GP, if you're out there, forgive my paraphrase.) Methinks that as a stock analyst, little David Heger isn't fit to hold someone like Gregg's #2 pencil. But of course since we all _know_ that, the blind blunderings and bellowings of AG Edwards actually work in our favor. I'd be tickled to death if we got another noodnik analyst to drive Q down 30-40 points in a few days time, as happened early last month. I'd be laughing myself silly as I backed the truck up to get another full load. And I know you all would be, too. -Rose-