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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DOUG H who wrote (44206)	10/11/1999 9:28:00 PM
From: w molloy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

OT Doug when I go to Vegas one of my favorite things to do is walk around the roulette wheels and look for tables where the numbers have not been hitting a particular 1/3 of the board. When I find one that has not hit 1-12 let's say, Ill put a bet on that third, usually if it does not hit I'll double till it does. It works quite well, and is nothing more than using behavior of the past to predict behavior in the future. Doug - you have fallen into a common fallacy. As far as roullette wheel s are concerned, what has happened in the past has no bearing whatsoever on what will happen in the future. The odds remain exactly the same for a given number (or sequence of numbers) on a given spin (or spins) of the wheel. Consider coin tosses. The coin has a 1 in 2 chance of landing heads up fo a single toss. The odds of tossing 100 heads in a row are very small indeed. Lets say you have tossed 99 heads in a row. What are the odds of the hundredth toss being heads? By your analogy, virtually zero, while the odds of tails coming up is virtually certain. You would be wrong. The odds for toss 100 remain the same as for toss 1 i.e 1 in 2. It is the sequence results that is improbable. You are reflecting a human trait for seeing significance in patterns when there are none. Thats why the casinos in vegas make so much money. w.

To: DOUG H who wrote (44206)	10/11/1999 10:21:00 PM
From: JohnG	Respond to of 152472

JimWillie's TA seems to work. Sometimes though I feel like for QCOM TA is the bigger players making price behave like TA says it should. Personally, I can only use it in my IRA/401K because tax rates are so high and taxes so complicated. It reminds me to buy on dips rather than when I am excited by strong upward movements. Also, I need to focus less on the Q which becomes impossible when I play short term. Also, I haven't been very successful on short term moves. In summary, I see it as a plus and wish I was better at it. JOhnG

To: DOUG H who wrote (44206)	10/12/1999 12:47:00 AM
From: Bux	Respond to of 152472

Doug, a roulette wheel is a mechanical device. If any 1/3 of the wheel has a statistically significant fewer number of hits, it is because the wheel is unbalanced or otherwise defective or rigged. You would not want to bet on that third. Any results to the contrary are merely coincidence. If 1/3 of the wheel has not been hit for awhile and the wheel is in perfect condition, that 1/3 is no more likely to be hit than any other 1/3. This is elementary. Bux

To: DOUG H who wrote (44206)	10/12/1999 9:31:00 AM
From: Voltaire	Respond to of 152472

Morning Dough, I hired a very trust worthy girl to spend the Roulette Wheel I purchased 30,000 times and believe it or not the system you use was the one I came up with as the best. Must keep your denominations low. Voltaire