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Non-Tech : Knight/Trimark Group, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CJ Mark who wrote (4900)	10/12/1999 1:21:00 AM
From: Herschel Rubin	Respond to of 10027

CJ, good comedy! Gary, thanks for the ASND comparisons. Sounds similar enough, but will probably unfold differently. Seems that turnarounds come in different shapes and sizes (just like cheap sex). I'm betting that the OLB trading frenzy that happened in March & April has an equal or greater chance of recurring if we consider how many more people are on-line just in the past year and then factor in the Gomez study about on-line trading's future exponential growth. As we well know, trading frenzies always erupts unexpectedly, so volume figures can easily turn on a dime. That's why KP's projected annual growth may be attainable in spite of difficult comparisons with the huge 1999 first quarter. This beast (on-line trading) is so new that we're just learning about its behavior. The lesson from 1999 is that OLB trade volume is shaping up to be VERY seasonal because the same individuals who are out enjoying the extended daylight hours of summer are NOT doing much trading. But in the winter, the cocooning effect takes over and those SAME people will be spending many cold winter evenings at their keyboards. Re: Buyout possibilites like ASND - I agree it's not in the cards for now. Most pairings of NITE with somebody else wouldn't be a good fit. For example, it is a certainty the SCH wouldn't buy out NITE - they have MASH. MER, or EGRP, or another? Maybe. But what would they do with the portion of NITE's business that supports the competition such as AMTD, TWD, etc?? Because a buyer of NITE won't want to help the competition, a buyout by one of the OLB's or "Old-Line" firms seems to not be a perfect fit. However, I think the best fit is if the NASDAQ ever goes public, they'd snatch up NITE in a New York minute. There hasn't been much discussion of this type of "best-fit" analysis for NITE, but it seems like NASDAQ could magnify NITE's potential whereas other suitors would be forced to marginalize NITE's potential for competitive advantage. Even with Optimark and ECN's, the NASDAQ is always going to need liquidity providers (MM's) for the majority of traded equities. NITE is the liquidity provider of choice.