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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (3763)	10/12/1999 9:52:00 AM
From: RWReeves	Respond to of 10280

Old Proctor and Gamble addage; 'Ain't no brand loyalty that 2 cents off won't cure". Seems to apply to the HMO formularies. Prilosec is used in combination therapy for H. Pylori induced ulcers but otherwise I am sure they would not pay for it. Here is an interesting site with drug rankings (1998 based) and monographs rxlist.com It does not answer your question about the volume hit. There are a few journals like Pharmaceutical Marketing that probably have this answer but I don't get it any more. Maybe somebody on the thread does, or it may now have a web site. I know Monopril dropped like a rock as soon as generic ACE inhibitors became available. An interesting exception is Coumadin- which has maintained an excellent share on the strength of DuPont's sales force and questions about the quality and performance of generic anticoagulants. Pharmaco-economics is becoming as much a part of clinical trials as efficacy and safety. Globally, in addition to approval, you now need approval for re-imbursement and in addition to re-imbursement, channel access through formularies that are tightly controlled. RWR

To: Biomaven who wrote (3763)	10/12/1999 4:34:00 PM
From: PaulW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

Basically, I agree with your thoughts, with one possible exception concerning Prilosec. Keep in mind that the article said "as much as 15 percent better than Losec" so we don't know if the average is 2% or 14%. They probably will come out with at a very competitive price - maybe close the same - to keep market share - generics argue they can sell generic Prilosec in 2001, AZN says it is later so AZN will try to get it to the market early in case they lose the patent battle. If they can convert the existing population to the new drug then it becomes a question as to whether AZN will try to price it competitively. Regarding percentages concerning generics in general, it seems that analysts estimate the first to market will probably grab 30% of the market at 70% of price (they have a six month exclusive right to the generic) - some analysts will use 10% and 70% to estimate earnings to be on the conservative side.